The Examined Life: NFL

Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Wonderlic Me

Over at Niners Nation, Fooch has done a post about the Wonderlic test, which has been famously used by NFL teams to gauge the mental capacity of college players at the combine. He links to a sample of the test, where you can test yourself. Like Fooch, I got 9 out of 10 questions right in the time alloted (I ran out of time before I could answer the last one), which gave me an estimated score of 45. As Fooch points out, that's pretty good:

A generic breakdown of the scoring looks like this:

50 = highest possible score, superior intelligence
30 = Very bright, you're shouldn't be living at home
20 = average intelligence (similar to IQ of 100)
15 = Equivalent to unskilled worker
10 and Below = Moron, barring unique circumstances

He also lists some scores of interest among QB's:

Drew Henson 42
Alex Smith 40
Eli Manning 39
Brian Griese 39
Tony Romo 37
Drew Bledsoe 36
Matt Leinart 35
Kellen Clemens 35
Tom Brady 33
Steve Young 33
John Beck 30
Philip Rivers 30
Troy Aikman 29
Brady Quinn 29
Drew Brees 28
Peyton Manning 28
Ryan Leaf 27
Ben Roethlisberger 25
Brett Favre 22

Notable Low Scores:
Tarvaris Jackson 19
Derek Anderson 19
Vince Young 16*
Dan Marino 15
Terry Bradshaw 15
Donovan McNabb 14
David Garrard 14
Kordell Stewart 13
Marcus Vick 11
Jeff George 10
Chris Leak 8

Want to test yourself? Go here.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Theoretical Gambling: Week 11

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 10 record: 11-3*
Season Record: 58-25
Week 10 vs. Spread: 12-2**
Season vs. Spread: 48-33-2
Week 10 Money won/lost: +$7,200
Season total (gain/loss): $14,800 (+$9,800)

* For the third straight week! That’s 33-9! Feel my heat!
** 22-6 over the past two weeks! 22-6! Against the spread! Seriously, you probably shouldn't even read this, your eyes might catch fire.

I’ve done so well of late, I’m having to change to the betting rules you see there at the top of this post. Not because I want to, but because the simple mathematics are forcing me to. See, when I started with $5,000, a $1,000 max bet made all the sense in the world. But now that I have built my fortune up to almost $15,000, I’ll be needing to bet nearly that on average.

So here are the new rules moving forward: Since the pot is now about 3x what it used to be, I’m adjusting the limits by the same ratio -- minimum bet is $300, maximum is $3,000. Hopefully, I would have to adjust this back down anytime soon.

Now, let’s make these picks before I cool off, shall we? I’m already off to a good start, going 1-0 both overall and against the spread after almost picking the score of the Thursday night game exactly:

JETS (+4) over Pats

PREDICTED SCORE: Jets 27, Pats 24
“MONEY” WAGERED: $300

*ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: Jets 34, Pats 31*

FALCONS (-6) over Broncos

Have I mentioned I was the first guy I know on the Falcons bandwagon. I have? Every week? Really? Well... Good, because it’s getting mighty crowded in here about now.

PREDICTION: Falcons 31, Broncos 24
WAGER: $300

Raiders (-10.5) over DOLPHINS

The Raiders look terrible right now -- maybe even the worst team in the league (no offense to Lions fans) -- and the ‘Phins are playing well, but I never like to give double-digit points, especially with teams who don’t put up a ton of points.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 27, Raiders 17
WAGER: $300

Ravens (+7) over GIANTS

I’ve got the Giants as the best team in football (yes, even above the undefeated Titans). But I love the Ravens too, and they’re just the kind of defense-and-no-mistakes team which can keep the score close with them.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Ravens 23
WAGER: $300

Texans (+8.5) over COLTS

The Colts are back, but not back to the blow-out-the-mediocre-teams Colts of years past. I say they win it, but don’t cover.

PREDICTION: Colts 28, Texans 20
WAGER: $300

Bears (+3.5) over PACKERS

The battle for the lead in the NFC Central. I like the Pack here, but these tough rivalry games are usually close affairs. On top of that, both Aaron Rodgers and Rex Grossman (if he plays in Kyle Orton’s absence) are QB’s who embody the whole saying, “He makes just enough throws to keep both teams in the game.”

PREDICTION: Pack 24, Bears 21
WAGER: $2,000

Titans (-2.5) over JAGS

12 straight regular season wins for the Titans, and I don’t think they’re running the table, so when will they lose? I do think it’ll probably be a division game, as those are usually the toughest -- teams you play twice, who know you well, and how they match up. So this the week? I’m saying no.

PREDICTION: Titans 20, Jags 17
WAGER: $1,000

Eagles (-9) over BENGALS

Here’s the Eagles in a nutshell: They struggle against the good teams in the league, and destroy the bad ones. Cincy = Bad one.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, Bengals 17
WAGER: $2,000

CHIEFS (+5.5) over Saints

Despite their undeniable suckiness, the Chiefs keep every game close even against good teams (last three weeks: Jets, Bucs, Chargers -- all heartbreakingly close losses). But can they stay with a potentially high-scoring offense like the Saints? Since I’ve been successfully riding “Take KC and the points” train the last few weeks, I’ll stay the course for now.

PREDICTION: Saints 28, Chiefs 23
WAGER: $400

PANTHERS (-14.5) over Lions

Remember how I said I don’t like giving away double-digit points when taking teams who don’t put up a lot of points? well, a whole ‘nother set of rules are in play when you’re talking about the Lions.

PREDICTION: Panthers 31, Lions 13
WAGER: $500

Chargers (+5) over STEELERS

The Chargers are a complete mystery to me, so I refuse to take them against any good team, especially on the road. But I do think they can keep this one close, and an upset wouldn’t completely shock me.

PREDICTION: Steelers 23, Chargers 20
WAGER: $2,000

Rams (+6) over NINERS

The Niners giving 6 points? Seriously? I love the Niners, but I can’t be a party to that kind of fiscal insanity during this economic downturn. I can take them to bounce back from their ugly loss on Monday night to get Samurai Mike his first W, however.

PREDICTION: Niners 30, Rams 24
WAGER: $1,000

Cardinals (-3) over SEAHAWKS

What is up with this spread? I’m all for doubting the Cards, but this spread is really low in my opinion. Just what the gambler ordered.

PREDICTION: Cards 31, ‘Hawks 20
WAGER: $2,000

Vikings (+4) over BUCS

I like the Bucs, but I have a lot of trouble giving points in their games -- I just don’t trust their offense enough. Especially when they play quality opponents (or Adrian Peterson). I say the Bucs win, but the Vikes keep in tight.

PREDCTION: Bucs 23, Vikings 20
WAGER: $1,500

Cowboys (-1) over REDSKINS

Romo is back, so will the Cowboys be? My Magic 8 Ball says: “Ask again later”, but I don’t have that kind of time, so I’m just going to go with “Yes”.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Skins 24
WAGER: $400

Browns (+5) over BILLS

The Bills are in freefall. Meanhile the Browns may be able to build something under Brady Quinn. Then again, maybe they won’t. Either way, I’m not giving them any points in this one.

PREDICTION: Bills 24, Browns 20
WAGER: $500

Friday, November 7, 2008

Theoretical Gambling: Week 10

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 9 record: 11-3*
Season Record: 47-22
Week 8 vs. Spread: 10-4
Season vs. Spread: 36-31-2
Week 8 Money won/lost: +$3,400
Season total (gain/loss): $7,600 (+$2,600)

* For the second straight week!

Finally found my groove last week with a new formula (which is really my old formula): pick the three to five games which seem the most obvious –- you know, the ones where you go “What is Vegas thinking with that line?” – and bet approximately 3/4 of the pot on them, and then lay the remaining ~1/4 of the pot on all the other games combined (or essentially, the as close to the minimum $100 bet as possible for each).

After one very successful week using this formula, I feel very good about my chances the rest of the year. Tune in next week to see how far my confidence has fallen. In fact, it’s already started:

BROWNS (-3) over Broncos

PREDICTED SCORE: Browns 34, Denver 27
“MONEY” WAGERED: $200

*ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: Broncos 34, Broncos 30*

That’s right, I’m already 0-1 this week, both overall and against the spread (and down $200), because I made the unforgivable mistake of having faith in the Browns. Of course, it would’ve been just as unforgivable to place my trust in the defense-and-running-game-deficient Broncos.

Without further ado, here are the rest of my Week 10 picks:

Jaguars (-7) over LIONS

I hate taking the Jags, especially after the week they’ve had – giving the Bengals their first win, followed by lots of off-the-field controversy in Jax-ville – but I feel significantly better picking against Daunte Culpepper, starting his first game for the Lions one week after joining the team.

PREDICTION: Jags 31, Lions 16
WAGER: $200

Titans (-3) over BEARS

Is this the week the Titans lose? I’m going to answer that question with a question: Did you realize Rex Grossman is starting?

PREDICTION: Titans 23, Bears 16
WAGER: $1,000

PATS (-4) over Bills

The Bills are officially on the skids. The Pats are paying better and at home. These is the kinds of superficial analysis you can expect from me – especially when trying to differentiate between all the very similar AFC East teams.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Bills 17
WAGER: $400

FALCONS (-1) over Saints

I’m on the Falcon bandwagon. Do I have to write this every week, or have I made it clear yet?

PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Saints 24
WAGER: $1,000

Rams (+8.5) over JETS

The Jets consistently underwhelm (in part due to Brett Favre’s weekly Pick-6), so I’m not giving a TD+ to anyone, even the Lambs.

PREDICTION: Jets 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $300

Seahawks (+8.5) over DOLPHINS

The ‘Phins are playing well, so I’m taking them here, but I don’t think they have the fire-power to give 9 points, even to the lowly ‘Hawks

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 24, ‘Hawks 16
WAGER: $300

Packers (+2.5) over VIKINGS

The Pack almost pulled off the big upset against the Titans I predicted last week, and are playing very well. If they can hold Adrian Peterson reasonably in check this week and force Frerotte to beat them, they should do it again.

PREDICTION: Pack 27, Vikes 20
WAGER: $1,000

Panthers (-9.5) over RAIDERS
The Raiders are an absolute joke. That’s all I have to say about that.

PREDICTION: Panthers 30, Raider 13
WAGER: $1,000

Chiefs (+15.5) over CHARGERS

The way the Bolts have been playing, I can’t give away double-digit points. Also, the Chiefs have beat the spread and almost pulled off upsets two weeks straight.

PREDICTION: Bolts 24, Chiefs 20
WAGER: $300

Colts (+3.5) over STEELERS

The Steelers still likely win this one (whether Big Ben plays or not) because the Colts are not up to their normal standards this season, but I think they can still keep it close.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Colts 21
WAGER: $300

Giants (+3) over EAGLES

The Giants may be the best team in football. The Eagles are playing well again, but aren’t in the Giants class. Why are the eagles favored? Good question.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Eagles 24
WAGER: $1,000

Ravens (PK) over TEXANS

I’m officially OFF the Texans bandwagon, especially with Sage “Don’t Trust Me” Rosenfels starting at QB for Houston.

PREDICTION: Ravens 23, Texans 20
WAGER: $400

49ers (+9.5) over CARDINALS

This is more out of hope the Niners don’t embarrass themselves on a rare national TV game than anything logical.

PREDICTION: Cards 30, Niners 21
WAGER: $200

To see which announcers will be calling your team’s game, or to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country check out this site.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Theoretical Gambling: Week 9

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Random Rant: Zen & The Art Of Football Viewing

This is where I rant. About random stuff. You might've guessed that from the title.

The gift of modern technology has blessed football fans in many ways over the years, from the original TV broadcasts which brought the games into homes in a way radio never could, to instant replay, and right on down the line. The ridiculous creature comforts of today -– tiny, omnipresent on-screen scoreboard boxes, first down lines, even streaming fantasy stats -– make it easy to forget what is arguably the greatest leap of all time -- the advent of NFL Sunday Ticket in 1994.

Before that time, if you lived out of the area where your favorite team played (as I have since 1989), you had three choices if you wanted to see them play: 1) Pray they were lucky/good enough to be in either a nationally televised game or that they game happened to be shown in your area, 2) Go to a sports bar with a satellite dish to watch the game, or 3) Be disappointed.

I was actually lucky, because during the time I was in Boston at college and in Boulder after graduation, the Niners were such a good/popular team they were often on anyway. In fact, you knew going into each year they were good for three Monday night games, two Sunday night games, and plenty of late afternoon national games. It helped they played the late games, where’s there less competition, and also that NBC/CBS (whichever was covering the AFC) always used a NIner game -– of which they had two per year -– to jack up ratings by making it a national game. In short, I was spoiled.

Most other fans who lived out of town had to suffer the indignity of calling 1-800 numbers or staring at the Headline Sports ticker for score updates. So when it arrived, Sunday Ticket might as well have been the Holy Grail to football fans. Suddenly, it didn’t matter what game the stupid network chose to put on in your area. It didn’t matter if they played some crappy local matchup over a classic game going on at the same time (I dealt with this a lot growing up -– the Raiders were always on 1pm PDT even if their game sucked while Elway and Fouts were in a shootout at Mile High). Hell, it didn’t even matter if there several great games on at once -– you could watch them all.

But that’s the thing -– you can’t. There’s only so much you can swallow at once. Of course, we didn’t know that in those giddy early days. Like teens discovering the joys of a box of wine, we didn’t just get tipsy on our new delight, we gulped it down until our heads were splitting. Soon, it became clear there were limits (aren’t there always?) -- you have to know when to say when, or risk ruining a good thing. Thus, The Theory was born.

The core belief of The Theory is this: Two football games is the most you can watch and still have a clear idea what is going on in both at all times. The jump button is a big part of this (and the two-tuner receivers have added to that*), but the same is true at a sports bar – watching three games at once is the point when things become disjointed. You start to lose key bits of narrative – an injury update, a measurement, a key play here or there. But that’s not to say you can’t follow more than two games played at the same time. It takes a thoughtful, methodical approach, but I’m just the kind of lazy, underachieving loser who takes non-valuable time out my schedule to come up with approaches to these types of things.

See, while you can only truly follow two games at any one moment, games last much longer than a moment. They last over three hours, and each has its own unique rhythm and pace. Teams get out to big leads, allowing you to drop them from the rotation -– if the score tightens up later, they may re-join it. Some games move along more rapidly than others –- particularly quick games go to halftime early and may be dropped from the rotation temporarily, particularly slow games can be saved until later because the opportunity will still be available.

This brings up one of the key tenets of The Theory: Games which are closer to ending should be given rotation priority over games with more time left. Often this can be the overriding factor –- If three games are tied in 4th quarter, watch two with the least time left. This can change with the score, however. If one of those three hypothetical games was a one-point game (and therefore less like to go to OT), it should be given slight preference over a tie-game with about the same amount of time left.

The Theory is really like a constantly shifting organism –- Game A and B are in the rotation until Game B turns into a blowout and it is replaced with Game C. Soon after, the pace of Game A begins to slow down and it is replaced by Game D, which is speeding to a conclusion. By the time it’s done, Game A is a blowout, but Game B is tightening up, so that jumps in. And so on, and so on. It actually sounds like a lot of work written out like that. And maybe it is. But it’s a labor love.

New Stars:

While we're talking about football on TV, here are a couple of thoughts I've had this week on that subject:

--Sometime 'Inside the NFL' correspondent Jenn Brown -- on the show this week with a piece on the game in London last week -- is suddenly in the argument for "Who's the world's hottest female sportscaster. While I think she's certainly the kind of change we can believe in, this election season I'm still casting my vote for Erin Andrews. It comes down to the big issues: experience, and bigger tits.

--Speaking of sportscasters whose previous TV experience came outside of the sports world, there's a bright new star on the football color commentating landscape: Jesse Palmer, late of 'The Bachelor' and a former 3rd string QB in the NFL (including a brief stint with the Niners). Late last season, he did a few NFL games for FOX and displayed a lot of skill. This year, he's at ESPN, covering college football as both a studio analyst and color commentator on the Thursday night games with Chris Fowler. He's smart, funny, and makes his points without droning on or repeating himself unnecessarily.

----Osi Umenyura did a guest spot on 'Inside the NFL' this week, and while I know he has a whole lot of good football left in him, he already appears a better fit in the studio than former teammate and current NBC studio analyst Tiki Barber, who retired early just so he could announce. Umenyura was brutally honest, handled tough question deftly, showed uncommon insight, and a million dollar smile. You haven't seen the last of him on TV -- although you may have to wait 10+ years until you see him.

* Now you can switch away from a game and know that even if you “miss” something big while watching the other game, you’re still recording on the other tuner and can rewind the see what you’ve missed.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

For Who? For What?: JoePa FTW!

This wrap-up of the weekend in both college and pro football is named after the classic post-game quote immortalized by all-time favorite/whipping boy Ricky Watters.

I decided to shake things up, and start writing about the entire weekend in football – college included. Part of this springs from the fact my Niners are stinking it up so bad, I’m having trouble putting too much thought into the NF of L, and part of it has to do with the fact when I started this blog it was too early in the season to seriously discuss who the best teams in college were. As I’ve previous made clear, I’m not a fan of jumping into to bed and ranking teams before we have a chance to get to know each other a little better.

But with the leaves changing colors (I’m assuming, because the leaves in LA are on strike), and the teams coming more into focus, I figured it was time to unleash The EL’s first ever Top Ten in college football:

1. Texas (8-0)
2. Alabama (8-0)
3. Penn State (9-0)
4. USC (6-1)
5. Oklahoma (7-1)
6. Georgia (7-1)
7. Florida (6-1)
8. Texas Tech (8-0)
9. Oklahoma State (7-1)
10(tie). Utah (8-0)/Boise State (7-0)

Notes: A few differences between my list and the polls – both BCS and AP: I have USC over Oklahoma based on their superior defense; I have both Georgia and Florida over Texas Tech based on playing stiffer competition, but if Tech beats Texas this week, you can expect to see some leap-frog action; So as to not slight either of the undefeated teams from the Mountain West, I have Utah and Boise State tied for the final spot.

Penn State may be 3rd on my list –- and 3rd in both the BCS and AP as well –- but after their big win at the horseshoe over OSU this weekend, I feel they may have the best chance of any team in the nation to play for the National Championship in January. Both of the schools ahead of them, Texas and Alabama, still have to each get through a highly-ranked opponent on the road, a rivalry game, and a conference title game. Meanwhile, Penn State has only one speedbump on its schedule, and the Big Ten is one of the last remaining conferences without a championship game gauntlet to run.

#1 Texas is the hottest team in the nation, maybe even it's best, but they are in an epically rough portion of their schedule and the hard work isn't done yet. Coming off a big win over Oklahoma State, the 'Horns have another tough matchup this week, at undefeated Texas Tech. If the ‘Horns can slip past the Red Raiders, they get the Aggies, and while Texas A&M is 1-5 this year, you know the Aggies will save their best game for the Longhorns. get past the Aggies and Texas lands themselves a showdown vs. the Big 12 North Division champ. That’ll likely mean a rematch with #11 Missouri, this time at a neutral site – Kansas City, where there could be a yet another difficult obstacle -- snowy conditions.

Alabama’s schedule isn’t any easier. They have a tough matchup at #19 LSU in two weeks, and a home game against feisty rival Auburn after Thanksgiving. If the Crimson Tide can survive that, they face an even tougher challenge in the Georgia Dome for the SEC Championship Game – either #7 Georgia or #10 Florida.

As good as both the ‘Horns and Tide are, I simply can’t see them both running the table. Penn State, on the other hand, has just one ranked team left to face, #21 Michigan State, and that game’s at home. If they avoid a stumble there – and I can’t think of the last time the Spartans played spoiler to anyone’s title hopes – ol’ JoePa himself will be having a last laugh on critics (like myself) who called him over the hill years ago.

Around the NFL:

--Don't look now, but the Carolina Panthers are the 2nd best team in the NFC. You may want to argue, but I bet you'll have a hard time doing it. It's not that I think the Panthers are dazzling -- they're not. But this is a process of elimination deal here, and besides the New York Giants, I defy you to name me one team you'd be confident in wagering on against them. Last week, I had them behind only the Giants among NFC teams in my power poll, just ahead of Tampa and Arizona. They beat the Cards this week (albeit at home) while Tampa lost to a the limping former juggernaut known as the Dallas Cowboys. The next team down the list is the Redskins, who struggled to beat Detroit.

Then you start to think about their weaknesses, and they aren't too many. Delhomme isn't the best, but he's proven he can get deep in the playoffs. The two-headed running attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is solid. We all know Steve Smith is a beast. And on D, Julius Peppers is looking like he did a few years ago, which is a good thing. There's a lot of time left in the season, and the Panthers have a very tough run toward the end of the season, but suddenly the Panthers look like a solid darkhorse contender for the Super Bowl.

--The Niners aren't really worth talking about right now, and I don't want to force things, but I do have to say a word about Mike Singletary (with more probably to come). He showed more fire today than any coach or player for some time. And he made more moves fans have been dying for than Nolan ever made. "Samurai Mike" may not be a good coach, but at least for one day he made me believe he is. And even if he fails, I'm glad he pulled JustTurnOvers and sent VD to the showers because that's what they deserved, and his passion is what they need.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Theoretical Gambling: Week 8

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 7 record: 8-6
Season Record: 25-16
Week 7 vs. Spread: 6-8
Season vs. Spread: 20-21
Week 7 Money won/lost: -$900
Season total (gain/loss): $5,200 (+$200)

THUD! That was the sound of my ego falling back to earth in Week 7. After two wiing weeks I starting to think I should start making some real wagers, but Week 7 reminded me why I don’t. Although I had a winning record overall, I had a losing record against the spread, and took it on the chin in terms of (fake) money. I’m still technically ahead in the wallet, but if I were really in Vegas –- or even just betting with a bookie -– I’d be paying the “vig” (the nominal service fee), and would therefore probably be around even, if not a little behind.

So, with my previously Mike Nolan-sized ego back in check, and my confidence in myself lower than it is in JT O’Sullivan, I’m back for redemption:

RAVENS (-7) over Raiders

I don’t like the Ravens, I’m not impressed, I don’t think they’re very good. And yet, I’m picking them and giving a TD. This is why you shouldn’t trust me.

PREDICTED SCORE: Ravens 20, Raiders 10
“MONEY” WAGERED: $100

Cards (+4) over PANTHERS

This matchup looks like a push to me on paper, in which case, Carolina should only get 1.5 points for the home-field advantage. Since they're getting 4, I'll take the Cards in ~~pillow~~nail-biter.

PREDICTION: Panthers 27, Cards 24
WAGER: $400

Bucs (+2.5) over COWBOYS

The Cowboys look bad and the Bucs look good, but I say the ‘Boys find a way to eek this out. But I still can’t give points with the way they’re playing right now.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 24, Bucs 23
WAGER: $300

Redskins (-8) over LIONS

The Skins have been playing up to the good teams, and down the bad ones. I say that stops this week.

PREDICTION: Skins 34, Lions 16
WAGER: $1,000

DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Bills

The Bills aren’t quite as good as they’ve looked, so they’re due to take one on the chin.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 20, Bills 17
WAGER: $100

Rams (+7.5) over PATRIOTS

The Rams are on a roll, and the Pats… Well, I have no idea what the Pats are. Don’t get me wrong -– they’ll win, I just have no idea how easily. “When it doubt, say 7 points”, that’s what I always say –- starting now.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $100

Chargers (-3.5) over Saints

Both these teams need to play a lot better. I think the Bolts are the better bet to do it –- especially with Reggie Bush out.

PREDICTION: Bolts 31, Saints 27
WAGER: $500

Chiefs (+13.5) over JETS

The Jets win this one easily against the LJ-less Chiefs, who are also starting the legendary Tyler Thigpen at QB.

PREDICTION: Jets 27, Chiefs 13
WAGER: $300

Falcons (+9) over EAGLES

It’s getting crowded on the Matt Ryan/Falcons bandwagon, glad a got a good seat early. The game’s in Philly, so I think they pull it out, but Atlanta keeps it close.

PREDICTION: Philly 27, Falcons 20
WAGER: $200

JAGUARS (-7) over Browns

I think the Jags are poised to make a run. A game against Cleveland seems like a good place to start.

PREDICTION: Jags 27, Browns 17
WAGER: $300

TEXANS (-9) over Bengals

Same as above, except replace “Jags” with “Texans”, and “Browns” with “Bengals”.

PREDICTION: Texans 31, Bengals 20
WAGER: $500

Giants (+3) over STEELERS

BREAKING NEWS: Santonio Holmes is a pothead. He just got busted with weed in his car, and won’t play this weekend. I probably would’ve picked the Giants anyway, this makes it a no-brainer.

PREDICTION: Giants 24, Steelers 20
WAGER: $300

NINERS (-5) over Seahawks

New Math: Singletary – Nolan + a crappy opponent = A rare Niner win.

PREDICTION: Niners 27, ‘Hawks 20
WAGER: $1,000

Colts (+3.5) over TITANS

Going into the season: Titans underrated, Colts overrated. Now: not so much. The Titans are great, but they can’t win them all. Is this the week they lose? I say “no”, but I’m worried.

PREDICTION: Titans 23, Colts 20
WAGER: $100

To see which announcers will be calling your team’s game, or to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country check out this site.

Monday, October 20, 2008

BREAKING NEWS: MIKE NOLAN NOW THE MOST COCKY UNEMPLOYED GUY IN THE WORLD

Gone. Gone are suits. Gone are the denial-ridden press conferences. The stubborn refusal to admit any mistake in strategy or personnel. The gameday decisions so dumb it made your brain hurt just to think about how dumb they were. And, thank you sweet heavens, gone is one of the worst replay challengers ever seen on the playing fields of the NFL (never mind his misleading percentage -- it doesn't count the plays he should've challenged). Gone is Mike Nolan. Not dead, mind you -- though his head coaching career may well be -- just fired from the 49ers.

There's no way to know if interim (or is he?) head coach Mike Singletary will be any better than Nolan, but as a longtime Niner fan I can tell you I'm almost certain he won't be any worse on Sundays. Nolan deserves due credit for helping to assemble a tremendously more talented roster than the one he inherited from the Terry Donahue ~~Holocaust~~ Administration. But where he failed -- as "The Face of The Franchise" as he was so fond of calling himself, and as a gameday coach -- he failed miserably. And while we don't know how Singletary will fare on Sundays, I think he's already got me more inspired knowing I'll be hearing him answer the tough questions after games the rest of the year.

There's talk the Niners may simply name Singletary head coach (no "interim") and are at present negotiating a long-term contract with him. While I like Singletary, and think he has the leadership qualities needed to maximize the Niners talent, this would be a mistake. The reason I'm so in favor of this move -- besides not having to listen to Nolan talk anymore -- is that it gives Singletary a more than half-season trial run as H.C. to show what he brings to the table, and gives the Niners brass a chance to see if they like what they see. The brass may think they already know what they've got in Singletary -- he's been there three and a half years -- but people change when they become the man in charge. Nolan did.

Nolan was inspiring right out of the gate. Those questionable quirks, like the "WIN THE WEST" banner his first year, were kind of endearing. But, like in most relationships, that wears off fast. And if you can't win 1/3 of your games, you could look like a Chinese baby and people still won't think you're cute. Especially when you spend most of your time talking down to them like they don't understand how well you're really doing.

Week 7 Postmortem: Random Interval Power Rankings

We’ve reached the 1/2.42857-way point of the NFL regular season, so it seems appropriate to do a power ranking.
But seriously, why now? While most TV shows, newspaper columns, and blogs like to do weekly or quarterly rankings, I find they’re worthless. I don’t dig the weekly thing because it’s hard to tell how much any game is good play by one team or bade play by the other. Besides, you shouldn’t judge very much based any one game. And so my teams would not change much from week to week.

As for the quarterly thing, that’s cool, but it seems so rigid. What if the teams are really making a switch before—do you have to wait until the next week to show it? And how well do you know the teams after Week 4. Some teams have only played 3 games, how can you really gauge where they’re headed. Most people had Dallas and Philly at the top of their rankings after four weeks (I know, I would’ve –- maybe that’s why I’m already out of my survivor pool), and where are they now? That’s how crazy the NFL has been this year.

I guess that’s why I believe that in the NFL -- like in college football, where expectations have a lot to do with rankings -- you should wait until you know the teams a little bit before you go ranking them, since any movement after will be based off that. Or maybe I’m just too lazy to rank the teams all the time, and I’m only do it now because I can’t think of another topic. Nah, that can’t be it.

So, check out the list, criticize me if you must, but remember one thing: This is a snap-shot. I don't really believe some of the teams at the top of these rankings belong there, and there are quite a few teams in the middle of the pack -- even some toward the back of the middle of the pack -- who could be at the top by season's end. With that said, let’s take a look at the first ever ‘The Examined Life’s Random Interval Power Rankings, presented by Cialis’:

1. Tennessee Titans -- That’s right, the best team in the NFL right now has Kerry Collins as their starting QB.
2. New York Giants -- The defending world champs have put up back-to-back lackluster performances, but I still think they can turn it on when they need to.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers -- The Steelers are down to their 3rd string running back… And he’s looking great.
4. Carolina Panthers -- They are always capable of delivering a real stinker when you least expect it (see: Week 6 vs. Tampa), but they also look a little scary when Delhomme and Smith are hooking up.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- I like to think of the Bucs as “Titans Lite”.
6. Arizona Cardinals -- No, your eyes don’t deceive you, I have the Arizona Cardinals as a Top 5 NFL team right now. But I think that says more about the consistency of the NFL than anything else.
7. Buffalo Bills -- This year’s Jags? They have the inexperienced QB making like a good game manager, the two-headed monster at RB, and a stingy D.
8. Washington Redskins -- They’re down, they’re up, they’re down again. The Washington Redskins: The 2008 NFL Poster Team.
9. Dallas Cowboys -- This ranking would be higher for the Tony Romo Cowboys, and lower if it was the Brad Johnson edition. Instead, think of this as a combination: The Tony Johnson Cowboys.
10. Denver Broncos -- I don’t think they can stop anybody, and they’re in my Top 10. Did I mention it’s been a crazy year?
11. Philadelphia Eagles -- They aren’t the same without Westbrook, and it’s no guarantee they’ll have him consistently the rest of the way (he’s been known to get dinged up). Still, I see them moving up from this spot.
12. Indianapolis Colts -- See directly above, only substitute “Addai” for “Westbrook”.
13. San Diego Chargers -- LT is not the LT of old. Until that changes, they’re not that scary.
14. New England Patriots -- This is probably too high, but I can’t help but keep thinking that if the Pats can somehow turn Cassel into a decent game manager they could still come back like those pesky Red Sox.
15. Green Bay Packers -- Aaron Rodgers can look really good or really bad. Sound like any other Green Bay QB's you can think of?
16. Chicago Bears -- Kyle Orton: Better than you thought.
17. Atlanta Falcons -- Better than anybody thought. Way better.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Not as good as anybody thought.
19. Baltimore Ravens They’re probably lower than they deserve to be, but I don’t trust Flacco. If he plays solidly, they can be “Bucs Lite”, which I guess would make them “Titans Lite Lite”
20. New York Jets -- They are the classic “Any given Sunday” team – they could beat or lose to just about anybody at any time.
21. New Orleans Saints -- Consistently inconsistent.
22. Houston Texans -- They’re dangerous. Not necessarily all that good. But dangerous.
23. Miami Dolphins -- He might not be the coach, and it’s still early is the process, but this looks like a Parcells team.
24. Minnesota Vikings -- Not nearly as good on the field as they are on paper. Probably because on paper the QB is just one of 22 positions, and on the field it’s a lot more.
25. Cleveland Browns -- They can’t score. Like, at all.
26. St. Louis Rams -- Higher than the Niners despite just firing their coach. Awesome.
27. San Francisco 49ers -- I don’t wanna talk about it.
28. Seattle Seahawks -- Wow, they went from perennial division winner to bad really fast, didn’t they?
29. Oakland Raiders -- Oakland may have won on Sunday, and they do have some young talent (especially at RB), but they still have a puppet coach and a decaying corpse calling all the shots.
30. Kansas City Chiefs -- They’re a one star team who’s star is petulant, suspended, and past his prime. And that’s the good news.
31. Cincinnati Bengals -- Marvin Lewis is so fired, he can’t even feign interest in his press conferences anymore.
32. Detroit Lions -- No talent, no direction, no hope.

UPDATE: I mentioned in my Friday post that I think the new LaDainian Tomlinson/Troy Palomalu Nike commercial is the new record holder for Best NFL Ad Of All Time, so it should come as no surprise that it was directed by one of all-time favorite directors, David Fincher. If you haven't seen it -- in which case you probably don't like football much, since it's always on during games -- or just want to check it out again, here it is (hat tip to FilmDrunk.com for the link):

Friday, October 17, 2008

Theoretical Gambling: Week 7

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! Another winning week, another pile of fake money acquired by yours truly (now up $1,100 after two weeks). Another couple of weeks like this, and I may actually have to go to Vegas with some real money. I know, that sounds like famous last words, but as "Fast Eddie" Felson said, "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." In the spirit of that fictional quote from a fictional man in a fictional story, let's get to some fiction wagering:

First, a quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it.

Week 6 record: 9-4
Season Record: 17-10
Week 6 vs. Spread: 7-6
Season vs. Spread: 14-13
Week 6 Money won/lost: +$300
Season total (gain/loss): $6,100 (+$1,100)

Tennessee (-8) over KANSAS CITY

Tennessee is my pick for “The best team you feel least comfortable about giving away double-digit points with”. You know they’ll win, but will they score enough to cover? With Larry Johnson suspended for this game, Tennessee could easily win by 10 without scoring 20, but that’s a hard thing to bet on happening. Not that I’m going to let that stop me.

PREDICTED SCORE: Titans 17, Chiefs 7
“MONEY” WAGERED: $400

San Diego (-1) over BUFFALO

In a 1 point spread game, you should just pick the team who you think will win. Therefore, I’m picking this one like I used to when I was a kid. San Diego are 3-3, and Buffalo is 4-1, so which records seem more likely after this game: San Diego 3-4 and Buffalo 5-1, or San Diego 4-3 and Buffalo 4-2. I’m going with the latter.

PREDICTION: Bolts 24, Bills 21
WAGER: $700

Pittsburgh (-10) over CINCINNATI

I thought those NFL ads last year featuring Steven Jackson and Shawne Merriman were the best of all time. But the new one this year following Troy Palomalu and LaDainian Tomlinson from birth -- through childhood and college -- to a thundering collision on the field against each other, is even better. That has noting to do with this game, but it’s more interesting than saying “Cincy sucks”.

PREDICTION: Steelers 30, Bengals 17
WAGER: $500

MIAMI (-2.5) over Baltimore

I can’t believe I’m picking the Dolphins and giving points. If you would’ve told me that would happen against any team besides KC or possibly St. Louis, and I’d have laughed, and probably thought you were crazy. Now I’d probably think you’re a witch, and try to burn you.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 24, Ravens 17
WAGER: $300

Dallas (-7) over ST. LOUIS

Tony Romo probably won’t play. It probably won’t matter.

PREDICTION: ‘Boys 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $400

Minnesota (+3.5) over CHICAGO

Minnesota needs play much better than they did against the Lions last week. I think they will. This game will be a toss-up, so take the points.

PREDICTION: Vikes 17, Bears 16
WAGER: $300

New Orleans (+3) over CAROLINA

Close call, but the Saints need this one worse than Carolina, so I’ll take the points.

PREDICTION: Saints 31, Panthers 27
WAGER: $400

NY GIANTS (-11) over San Francisco

I thought the Niners might be able to sneak up on the red-hot, undefeated Super Bowl champs…until the Giants already pulled their sleep-walk loss the previous week vs. Cleveland. They won’t overlook two games in a row.

PREDICTION: Giants 31, Niners 17
WAGER: $800

HOUSTON (-9.5) over Detroit

I’ll never feel right about taking the Texans by 10 points, but Detroit was bad before losing Roy Williams and Jon Kitna. Hopefully, Houston rid themselves of their bad early-season mojo in their last-second win last week.

PREDICTION: Houston 34, Lions 13
WAGER: $600

NY Jets (-3) over OAKLAND

This spread seems a little small to me. It’s times like these, I wish I ~~still~~ had a bookie.

PREDICTION: Jets 27, Raiders 17
WAGER: $700

WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Cleveland

Washington looked great up until last week, Cleveland looked terrible until last week. Let’s just pretend last week didn’t happen, shall we?

PREDICTION: Skins 27, Browns 17
WAGER: $700

GREEN BAY (+1.5) over Indy

Are the Colts back, or are the ravens just that bad? Probably a combination of both. But on the road, without Addai, giving points -- I’ll hold off another week or two before I start believing again.

PREDICTION: Packers 27, Colts 24
WAGER: $100

Seattle (+11) over TAMPA BAY

Seneca Wallace and Charlie Frye. Those are your Seahawk QB’s. That really makes me want to give those 11 points. Then I remember that Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese are the Buc QB’s. The Bucs win this one, but not by 11.

PREDICTION: Bucs 24, ‘Hawks 16
WAGER: $200

Denver (+3) over NEW ENGLAND

I don’t like what I see in the Pats, so I’m not willing to give points to a good team against them (bad Denver defense notwithstanding). But I do think at home on a Monday night, the pats can probably pull out a nail-biter.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Broncos 23
WAGER: $200

Want to see which announcers will be calling your team’s game? Want to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country? (If so, what the hell are you doing not having DirecTV?) If you answered "yes" to either of those questions, then just check out this link

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Week 6 Postmortem: Alcoa Presents "Fantastic Finishes" & Dead Nolan Walking

When I was growing up in the 80's, one of things I most looked forward to on Sundays in the Fall and Winter -- besides the Niners kicking the shit out of whoever was unlucky enough to be playing them that day, of course -- was a feature which ran exclusively during the later (1 pm Pacific) AFC games on NBC. While I usually wasn't all that into whatever game they were airing -- usually an AFC duel -- I knew that at some point in the 4th quarter they would cut to commercial and I'd hear the legendary Harry Kalas (although, for the record, I prefer my Kalas shaved) utter those four magic words: "Alcoa Presents... 'FANtastic Finishes'." This would be followed by highlights of some unbelievable ending to a game from a few years earlier. It was like history class for sports nerds like myself, and I made sure I never missed it.

(I'd love to embed a video here to enlighten those who were too young to enjoy "Fantastic Finishes", and for nostalgia purposes for those who do remember, but a Google video search actually comes up empty. Sure, there are a few mentions around the web, but no videos?! How could you desert me now, when I need you most, YouTube?! I thought you cared about me.)

So, why do I mention this now, you ask? Because there were a bunch of great finishes in the NFL this weekend, you jackass! In fact, there was a record five (5) games this weekend decided by a score in the final 10 seconds of the game. Two of these involved upsets of high-and-mighty NFC East teams. And with the Giants getting upset in Cleveland on Monday Night, the most powerful and hyped of all the divisions were swept! Wait, they weren't? The Eagles won? But they were down 9 in the 4th quarter on the road! How the hell did this happen?!

Glad you asked, imaginary reader.

Mike Nolan happened. He always does, doesn't he Niner fans? Yes, the king of bad clock management, questionable 4th down decisions, and unbelievably bad replay challenges was at it again on Sunday. This time, however, he decided to concentrate his entire focus on blowing the game solely through use of the replay system. In fact, he pulled off a kind of triple crown of bad replay usage -- the non-review of an obvious bad call, a review of an obvious good call, and (in it's NFL debut) a replay of a missed field goal, which wasn't even actually reviewable (not that it stopped him from throwing away a challenge, mind you). Let's start at the top:

THE BAD CALL

The Niners led 3-0 as the Eagles drove the ball into their territory. On a 3rd and 3, the Niners had a chance to hold Philly to a FG with a stop before Donovan McNabb hit Hank Baskett (who, by the way, is reportedly engaged to Kendra Wilkinson of "Girls Next Door" fame -- but can't go public or risk losing her part on the show) for a first down. Only a quick replay by FOX clearly showed the ball came loose when Baskett hit the ground and should've been ruled "no catch".

FOX analyst Brian "Bent Pinky" Baldinger correctly said that Nolan should challenge the call. Then FOX showed another replay, making the case for a challenge even more obvious. Still, no red flag from Nolan. Baldinger continued to insist the Niners had to challenge the call as McNabb led his team up to the line so slowly, I could've sworn it was the end of Super Bowl XXXIX, and Donovan was getting ready to blow chucks. But Nolan never challenged, the play counted, and the Eagles scored an important TD on the drive.

According to Matt Maiocco, 15 seconds passed from the showing of the replay on TV, and the next snap, yet Nolan contended not only that he "didn't have time" to throw the flag (he says he found out it wasn't catch after the next snap), but that his system for evaluating replay challenges works just fine. Sorry, Mike, but at least one of those statements is false.

THE GOOD CALL

Having realized he screwed up the previous play by not challenging, Nolan next did what he always seems to -- overcompensates by taking the next available opportunity to do what he should've done earlier -- even if it's not a good time. Nolan has made a habit of knee-jerk reactions like this ("What, you think I don't go for it on 4th down enough? Okay, fine, I'll go for it on the next one no matter how inappropriate it is under those specific game conditions"). So the next time a semi-questionable play occurred, out came the hanky. Only this time, it was on a clearly good catch by DeSean Jackson along the sidelines. Jackson not only got two feet down, it may have even been three.

So why the challenge? Nolan claimed he "wanted to see if he (Jackson) was bobbling the ball before he went out. Not that he was bobbling according to the replay (the only thing that matters since that's the criteria by which the play is reviewed), not even that he thought he was bobbling, juts that he "wanted to see" if he was bobbling the ball. Gee Mike, we're all curious about it, but is it really worth a timeout just to satisfy your curiosity? As Gwen Knapp of the Chronicle pointed out in her column on the game, replays are for sure things, not wild guesses -- especially ones in the 1st half, since wrong ones automatically coast you the bonus 3rd challenge you may need late in the game.

THE... WAIT, WHAT? REALLY?

So, down to one challenge, his timeouts dwindling, and behind in the game, Nolan decided to make history with his final challenge. Not only would he waste it on a good call -- a call that had no chance of being over-turned -- he actually wasted it on a call which was not eligible to be challenged. He challenged a made field goal which, while it did appear may have missed, only put his team down by 7 points with plenty of time left. His team was still in it, they needed their timeouts (especially since they waste so many -- and they quickly did just that, wasting their last one), might've needed that last challenge (they almost did), and the call in question was made by an official who had a better angle on the play than any replay did.

Nolan tried his best to slough this off on any number of other reasons -- he shouldn't have been allowed to challenge (this is kind of like the drunk driver blaming the bartender for not taking his keys), there should be a sign to give coaches whether kicks are low enough (below the uprights) to be challenged, there should be better TV angles on kicks to make it easier to challenge, and he's still not sure the call was right. Never mind the fact that he's clearly not sure about the challenge rules, never mind the fact he didn't mention any of these loopholes when the new challenge rules were instated during the off-season, never mind the shifting of blame, this was an indefensible move based solely on the game situation.

In short, Mike Nolan is the worst challenger since the space shuttle. What? Too soon?

So, what does Nolan say about all this in the press conference? The typical coach speak about having to get better ("And that includes the coaching staff") cliches? Nope. The "Pin this one on me, I lost this game" bravado that might win him some fans in the locker room? No siree. At least a token "We'll have to look into our challenge system" BS. Nuh-uh. Just more patented Nolan Denial. Why not, that's what he does best.

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- the Niners cannot become a good team until they have a good head coach. That man is not named Mike Nolan.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Theoretical Gambling: Week 6

It’s Friday night, and everyone knows what that means -- it's time for another weekend of fake gambling! And, after a winning record last week, I have even more make-believe money with which to wager. That's right, had I been in Vegas last weekend, I would've left with more money than I came with -- not including hotel, buffet, and hooker expenses. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Week 5 record: 8-6
Week 5 vs. The Spread: 7-7
Money won/lost: +$800
Season total (gain/loss): $5,800 (+$800)

Time for this week’s picks, Daddy needs a new pair of imaginary shoes...

SAINTS (-7) over Raiders

The Saints have lost some real heartbreakers this year. I say this week they take out their frustration on the sideshow that is the Raiders and whoever’s acting as their figurehead coach this week.

PREDICTED SCORE: Saints 34, Raiders 16
“MONEY” WAGERED: $500

Ravens (+4.5) over COLTS

The Colts are really lucky to be 2-2. I think they make it to 3-2, but not easily.

PREDICTION: Indy 24, Ravens 20
WAGER: $200

JETS (+5.5) over Bengals

No Carson Palmer, no points.

PREDICTION: Jets 30, Bengals 10
WAGER: $800

Panthers (+1.5) over BUCS  

The Panthers are “win ugly” pick this year – you’re rarely impressed, but they usually score more points than the other team. And most teams that do that win.

PREDICTION: Panthers 20, Bucs 16
WAGER: $600

FALCONS (+2.5) over Bears  

I really like the Falcons, and this week they are at home and getting points. So why do I feel so worried about this pick? Because at some point, Atlanta is bound to put up one of those “They’re still the Falcons”-type games.

PREDICTION: Falcons 17, Bears 16
WAGER: $100

Lions (+13) over VIKINGS

Adrian Petersen, a 300 yard game? It could happen. Still, I think Detroit keeps it relatively close.

PREDICTION: Vikes 30, Lions 20
WAGER: $100

TEXANS (-3) over Dolphins  

The actual Cinderella team in the AFC so far against the pre-season pick for the Cinderella team in the AFC. After last week’s debacle, the winless Texans really need a ‘W’. If only just to head off those “Houston, we have a problem” jokes at the pass.

PREDICTION: Texans 27, Dolphins 20
WAGER: $200

Jaguars (+3) over BRONCOS  

Two teams I really don’t know what to think of, but I have to pick one. So, when in doubt, go with the underdog and take the points. Especially when they’re going against a sieve of a defense.

PREDICTION: Jags 31, Broncos 28
WAGER: $200

REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams  

The Redskins look for real. If they are, they will cover this spread easily.

PREDICTION: Skins 34, Rams 13
WAGER: $700

Eagles (-4.5) over NINERS  

No Westbrook, no problem. No way the Eagles lose three in a row. The Niners, on the other hand, lose three in a row better than any team in the league.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, Niners 20
WAGER: $1,000

Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS

The Cowboys are due to play well. Kurt Warner is due to throw like 60 times for 500 yards and 4 INTs.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 38, Cards 28
WAGER: $500

Packers (-2) over SEAHAWKS  

Are the Packers and Seahawks this bad? I’d like to think so. I just wish both teams could lose this game.
PREDICTION: Pack 27, Seahawks 24
WAGER: $300

Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS  

This should’ve been a great matchup – the rematch of last year’s AFC championship, and quite possibly a preview of this year’s. Instead, it’s a test of which AFC power has fallen further since last year.

PREDICTION: Chargers 24, Pats 21
WAGER: $600

BROWNS (+8) over Giants  

The Giants are due for a stinker, the Browns need something, anything, to keep from letting this season become a complete embarrassment.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Browns 20
WAGER: $200

My Wife's Survivor Pick: Washington
My Wife's Record So Far: 5-0

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Week 5 Postmortem: The Gary Kubiak/Sage Rosenfels Murder-Suicide Watch

I’ll wait until all the games are done to total up the records and accounting from my theoretical gambling spree, but after Sunday at least three things seem clear: 1) I won money this week (theoretically), 2) Sage Rosenfels just got axed from Gary Kubiak’s Christmas card list, and 3) Sage Rosenfels just got added to Tony Dungy’s Christmas card list.

Of all the winner/loser (non-spread) picks I made this week, Houston was the one I felt the least sure about. Sure, I they were due, and the Colts are a mere shadow of their former selves, but still: it’s Colts v.Texans, and we all know how that usually turns out.

Through 56+ minutes of the game, I had forgotten all about those doubts – probably because I was too busy patting myself on the back for being right. Unfortunately, it appears Rosenfels, playing for the sick Matt Schaub, was busy doing the same thing. After turning in a great performance just when the Texans needed it most, Sage lived down to his name, producing an unbelievable choke job just when the Texans could afford it least. Houston, picked by many to be a darkhorse playoff contender this year, was 0-3, and their coach, Gary Kubiak was starting to feel the heat. They badly needed a win, and they played like it, jumping out to a 17 point lead. The Colts, on the other hand, were in nearly as bad a spot (worse, considering their usual expectations): 1-2 -- and lucky to have the "1" after a crazy 4th quarter comeback to win in Minnesota -- and about to fall to 1-3.

But, similar to their game in Minnesota, the Colts again refused to quit down big on the road, scoring a TD with 4:04 remaining to draw within 10. Their attempt at an onside kick failed, so Rosenfels and Co. took over, just needing a couple of first downs to ice his team’s first win. After two short runs – and two quick Indy timeouts – the Texans faced a 3rd and 8, and that’s when things got crazy. Rosenfels dropped back to pass, then scrambled left, getting so near the sticks, he felt he could get the first down with one good John Elway-esque lunge/dive thing. He very well may have gotten the mark, had he held onto the ball. But before he landed, the ball was knocked lose, and Gary Brackett scooped it up and rambled 68 yards for a score.

Now the score was suddenly 27-24, and the Colts could smell blood in the water. And Texans could smell the stank coming off Rosenfels’ decaying performance – he quickly fumbled again, leading to another Colts TD, then followed that up with a game-clinching interception into a sea of Colt defenders without a Texan in site. For those of you scoring at home, that’s three possessions resulting three turnovers in three minutes. That’s efficiency, my friends.

The Texans now drop to 0-4, all but eliminating them from the playoff hunt, and raising questions about Kubiak’s job security -- not to mention Sage Rosenfels' mental and physical well-being.

Meanwhile, elsewhere around the league:

--The Philadelphia Eagles, everybody’s consensus pick as the 2nd best team in the league to Dallas after their MNF shootout in Week 2, suffered their second straight loss, falling to 2-3. The ease with which they dispatched the Rams in the opening week and put points on the board at Dallas in Week 2 had everybody raving, but the Rams are the Rams, and the Cowboys D has been known to give up points in bunches in the past. Since then, the Iggles eeked out an ugly win vs. a banged-up Steeler team, caught a beat-down at Chicago, and lost at home to the Skins after jumping out to a 14-0 1st quarter lead. Does that sound like a dominant team to you? Suddenly, Washington -- a team written off by many prognosticators despite making the playoffs last year (unlike Philly) -- looks to be head and shoulders above them -- especially after playing all their NFC East road games already on their way to a 4-1 record. [UPDATE: Brian Westbrook broke two ribs Sunday -- that's not going to help Philly's chances.]

--Also at 2-3 after predictions of a Super Bowl run are the San Diego Chargers. This is what I wrote about them in the weekend preview:

“San Diego is the toughest team to pick in the league -- they seem capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, anytime, anywhere.”

Of course, I followed that up by writing this:

“But I think they've overcome the rough start, and are ready to pile up a few W's.”

In my defense, they were playing the Dolphins, and had no excuse for playing so poorly. Still, they're the Chargers, and that's what they do-- underachieve right up until the point you give up on them, then start flashing their talent. The next time I start judging the Bolts on what they should do based on their talent, somebody please remind me that Norv Turner is still their head coach.

--But for every underachieving enigma of a team threatening to implode when they should be rolling, there's an overachieving team jelling right before our eyes into a force to be reckoned with. Buffalo has looked like a budding power in the AFC East -- at least until Sunday, when starting QB Trent Edwards was knocked out less than five minutes into the game, leading to a blowout loss to Arizona (they're still 4-1), The Dolphins appear to be a contender for most improved team this year. Baltimore suffered a tough, controversial loss (due to an iffy roughing the passer call late) to undefeated Tennessee this week, but looks to be much better than last year's squad.

But my pick for the biggest pleasant surprise so far this year is the performance of the Atlanta Falcons under first-year coach (and famous no-name) Mike Smith. Michael Turner has lived up to all the hype, producing prolifically for Atlanta, just as he did when given a chance in San Diego. But the highlight has to be Matt Ryan, who I must admit I was never overly impressed with at Boston College, despite all the acclaim (I thought his high number of INT's in college did not bode well for his NFL chances). Ryan has looked like the real deal already, and with young skill players surrounding him, they could be a power in the NFC for years to come. Especially if they get that guy Vick back. What, too soon?

--I know the O-line could've done a better job protecting him, the receivers dropped several passes, and it didn't help that Frank Gore was under-utilized, but after his three pick game against the Pats, I’m officially back to calling the Niners QB “Just Turn Overs” until further notice. I'm also back to calling Mike Nolan "Dead Man Walking".

Friday, October 3, 2008

Theoretical Gambling: Week 5

Let's take look at the matchups awaiting us in Week 5 of the 2008 NFL season, shall we? To make things a little more interesting, I'm going to gift myself 5,000 theoretical dollars with which to gamble on said NFL games to how quickly I can lose it all. The only rules for the bets are these: 1) I have to bet all the money every week, and 2) Minimum bet: $100, Maximum bet: $1,000.

HOUSTON (+3) over Indianapolis

A "due" game. As in Houston is due, simple as that. And I think Indy is in trouble. Big trouble.

Predicted score: HOUSTON 23, INDY 20
"Money" wagered: $100

Tennessee (-2½) over BALTIMORE

I can't believe thousands of people are going to pay to see this game when they could be home watching a good game.

Prediction: TENNESSEE 20, BALTY 17
Wager: $200

San Diego (-6½) over MIAMI

San Diego is the toughest team to pick in the league -- they seem capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, anytime, anywhere. But I think they've overcome the rough start, and are ready to pile up a few W's. Meanwhile, for the time being I'm just going to pretend that Dolphins/Pats game never happened.

Prediction: BOLTS 31, PHINS 17
Wager: $500

Kansas City (+10) over CAROLINA

Carolina should win easily, but I'm not sold on their offense, so I'm gambling the Chiefs can keep it close -- or possibly stick in a meaningless TD late -- and cover.

Prediction: PANTHERS 24, CHIEFS 16
Wager: $300

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Washington

This game should come down to Brian Westbrook -- if he's healthy, the Eagles win, if he's not out, the Redskins have the edge. Westbrook has a strong history of playing hurt, and maintaining his effectiveness so I say he plays, and plays well. Washington is either a lot better than I thought or not. I'm still going with "not".

Prediction: PHILLY 30, SKINS 20
Wager: $200

Chicago (-3½) over DETROIT

Detroit is bad. Like really, really bad.

Prediction: BEARS 31, LIONS 20
Wager: $1,000

Atlanta (+7) over GREEN BAY

The Falcons = Better than everybody thinks. The Packers = Worse than everybody thinks. The Pack still wins it if Rodgers plays the whole game, but the Falcons ride Michael Turner to keep it close.

Prediction: PACKERS 24, FALCONS 20
Wager: $300

N.Y. GIANTS (-7½) over Seattle

I think the loss of Burress could hurt the Giants a lot more than people think, but the Seahawks look pretty bad. This is a toughie. I think the Giants will win by about a TD, so it's really a coin flip. That's it, I'll flip a coin. Hold on while I find one... Okay, got one. Flipping it... Heads. Wait, which team was heads again? Oh, I never figured that part out. Alright, let's say Seattle is heads -- since they have the head of a seahawk on their helmets. Okay, flip #2... It's tails -- Giants. Can't argue with that kind of science.

Prediction: GIANTS 27, SEAHAWKS 20
Wager: $100

Tampa Bay (+3½) over DENVER

I like really like Tampa's D. I really don't like Denver's D. Also, Brian Griese put up big numbers in a Bucs victory at Chicago the last time Griese played a former team, so maybe he'll psych himself up to make this stop #2 on the Vendetta '08 Tour. This is the type of BS reasoning you have to come up with to rationalize picks in close games in the NFL.

Prediction: BUCS 27, BRONCOS 24
Wager: $200

New England (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO

I like the Mike Martz Niner offense. Sure, there are sacks and hurries, as well as fumbles and interceptions. But there are also first downs, even touchdowns (unlike the models run by Jim Hostler, Mike McCarthy, even Norv Turner). I've grown to like J.T. O'Sullivan's big play ability. I've even stopped saying that "JTO" stands for "Just Turn Overs". But that being said, there is just no way in hell the Niners beat the Pats this week. Not after New England lost its last game. Not after the embarrassment the Pats suffered at the hands of the lowly Dolphins in Foxborough. And certainly not after Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game.

Prediction: PATS 27, NINERS 17
Wager: $1,000

Buffalo (+1) over ARIZONA

Buffalo is easy to like -- young, improving, and clutch. I know their fast start has been aided by some luck, and I know it will come crashing down some week soon. Probably on the road. I'm just betting it's not this week. Arizona is in disarray, and while I think they'll give the Bills a close game, I'm betting on another late field goal to win for this year's darkhorse darlings of the NFL.

Prediction: BILLS 24, CARDS 23
Wager: $200

DALLAS (-17½) over Cincinnati

Cincy has about as much chance to win this game as Bengals starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has of stealing Jessica Simpson away from Tony Romo -- about 20%. Remember, Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, so he could probably trick her pretty easily. More easily than the average person, I mean.

Prediction: 'BOYS 37, BENGALS 17
Wager: $500

JACKSONVILLE (-3½) over Pittsburgh

You know how some bands lose most of their original members but insist on still calling themselves by the same name? Once I saw The Band in NYC at some club, and there wasn't anybody I knew on stage. No Levon Helm. No Robby Robertson. Just some old fat dude from The Band, and a bunch of supporting players. The Steelers offense might be one more hit on the achy-breaky Ben Roethlisberger from looking like that version of The Band -- Charlie Batch at QB, Mewelde Moore at RB. And with the way their O-line looks, that hit might come sooner rather than later.

Prediction: JAGS 27, STEELERS 20
Wager: $300

Minnesota (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

This is another pure, straight-from-the-ass, "due" game. The Vikes are just due to win one, simple as that. And Adrian Peterson is due for an extra large game. The Saints D might be just the guys to give it up. Still, I'd feel better about this pick if both teams agreed not to play a QB. Or at least if Minnesota's wasn't named "Gus".

Prediction: VIKES 30, SAINTS 28
Wager: $100

My Wife's Survivor Pick: Carolina*
My Wife's Record So Far: 4-0

*My pick: Irrelevant (Why? Because I managed to get eliminated in just 4 weeks -- in a triple-elimination league. Yes, I'm aware that I suck, and that my wife is better at picking football games than I am. Nothing to see here, please move along.)

The Examined Life