Theoretical Gambling: Week 9

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 8 record: 11-3
Season Record: 36-19 (65%)
Week 8 vs. Spread: 6-6-2
Season vs. Spread: 26-27-2
Week 8 Money won/lost: -$1,000
Season total (gain/loss): $4,200 (-$800)

Okay, I suck. For two straight weeks I’ve stunk it up. Although, to be fair, last week I went 11-3 picking straight up, and pushed on two of those wins, where just one more point would’ve made me a winner in terms of “money” -- both for the week and the year. Still, you know what they say: “Excuses are like assholes, they’re full of shit.” Or something like that.

Because of the rankness of my picks against the spread recently, I’m doing something a little different this week -– maxing out on the games I feel good about, and going with the minimum on the others. I’m also keeping it short and sweet this week, so let’s get to it:

Texans (+4.5) over VIKINGS

The Vikes win, but don’t have the fire-power to blow anyone out (Caveat: Unless AD goes OFF).

PREDICTED SCORE: Vikes 24, Texans 20
“MONEY” WAGERED: $100

Jags (-7.5) over BENGALS

The Jags blow right now. The Bengals blow now and forever.

PREDICTION: Jags 27, Bengals 17
WAGER: $100

Bucs (-8.5) over CHIEFS

The Chiefs were feisty last week, but at some point the whole No-LJ-and-3rd-string-QB thing has to catch up to them.

PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Chiefs 16
WAGER: $100

Ravens (+1.5) over BROWNS

The Ravens are looking solid, and Joe Flacco is a big reason. He’s a much better all-around athlete than I thought.

PREDICTION: Ravens 21, Browns 17
WAGER: $100

BILLS (-6) over Jets

The Jets suck. Favre might be hurt. And the Bills are at home. I say they cover…just barely.

PREDICTION: Bills 27, Jets 20
WAGER: $100

Cards (-2.5) over RAMS

The Cards are playing good ball right now. Surprisingly, so are the Rams. Only the cards can keep it up.

PREDICTION: Cards 31, Rams 24
WAGER: $1,000

Lions (+13) over BEARS

The Lions have been a little feisty of late. I say they keep this one close.

PREDICTION: Bears 30, Lions 20
WAGER: $100

Packers (+4.5) over TITANS

This is where I go out on a limb. The Titans can’t win ‘em all. I think they lose this one. At home. I know, I’m a crazy person. No one can possibly predict what I might do next.

PREDICTION: Packers 24, Titans 23
WAGER: $100

Dolphins (+3.5) over BRONCOS

The ‘Phins can run, the Broncos can’t stop the run. Sometimes, it’s just that simple. (I hope.)

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 28, Broncos 24
WAGER: $100

Falcons (-2.5) over RAIDERS

I love the Falcons. I know I’ve mentioned that before, but I’m going to keep saying it, so it’ll be easier to link back it to later when they’re a playoff team in a year or so.

PREDICTION: Falcons 20, Raiders 17
WAGER: $1,000

GIANTS (-9) over Cowboys

Brad Johnson sucks. The Giants might be the best team in the NFL. Remember what I said about it being east sometimes?

PREDICTION: Giants 30, Cowboys 20
WAGER: $100

Eagles (-6.5) over SEAHAWKS

The Eagles look to be rounding into shape. The ‘Hawks shouldn’t be able to keep up, even at home.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, ‘Hawks 17
WAGER: $1,000

Patriots (+6) over COLTS

The shine is off this usually great matchup, but I think they’re closely matched talent-wise.

PREDICTION: Colts 27, Pats 24
WAGER: $100

Steelers (+2) over REDSKINS

17 times the Redskins have played a game the week before a Presidential election. 17 times whether the Redskins won or lost, the incumbent party did the same.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Skins 21
WAGER: $200

Obama (-6) over McCAIN

See above. 17 for 17 -- that's serious history. I wonder if Obama will be wearing a Big Ben jersey and cheering for the Steelers on Monday night.

PREDICTION: Obama 336, McCain 202
WAGER: The future of the world

To see which announcers will be calling your team’s game, or to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country check out this site.

Theoretical Gambling: Week 7

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! Another winning week, another pile of fake money acquired by yours truly (now up $1,100 after two weeks). Another couple of weeks like this, and I may actually have to go to Vegas with some real money. I know, that sounds like famous last words, but as "Fast Eddie" Felson said, "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." In the spirit of that fictional quote from a fictional man in a fictional story, let's get to some fiction wagering:

First, a quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it.

Week 6 record: 9-4
Season Record: 17-10
Week 6 vs. Spread: 7-6
Season vs. Spread: 14-13
Week 6 Money won/lost: +$300
Season total (gain/loss): $6,100 (+$1,100)

Tennessee (-8) over KANSAS CITY

Tennessee is my pick for “The best team you feel least comfortable about giving away double-digit points with”. You know they’ll win, but will they score enough to cover? With Larry Johnson suspended for this game, Tennessee could easily win by 10 without scoring 20, but that’s a hard thing to bet on happening. Not that I’m going to let that stop me.

PREDICTED SCORE: Titans 17, Chiefs 7
“MONEY” WAGERED: $400

San Diego (-1) over BUFFALO

In a 1 point spread game, you should just pick the team who you think will win. Therefore, I’m picking this one like I used to when I was a kid. San Diego are 3-3, and Buffalo is 4-1, so which records seem more likely after this game: San Diego 3-4 and Buffalo 5-1, or San Diego 4-3 and Buffalo 4-2. I’m going with the latter.

PREDICTION: Bolts 24, Bills 21
WAGER: $700

Pittsburgh (-10) over CINCINNATI

I thought those NFL ads last year featuring Steven Jackson and Shawne Merriman were the best of all time. But the new one this year following Troy Palomalu and LaDainian Tomlinson from birth -- through childhood and college -- to a thundering collision on the field against each other, is even better. That has noting to do with this game, but it’s more interesting than saying “Cincy sucks”.

PREDICTION: Steelers 30, Bengals 17
WAGER: $500

MIAMI (-2.5) over Baltimore

I can’t believe I’m picking the Dolphins and giving points. If you would’ve told me that would happen against any team besides KC or possibly St. Louis, and I’d have laughed, and probably thought you were crazy. Now I’d probably think you’re a witch, and try to burn you.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 24, Ravens 17
WAGER: $300

Dallas (-7) over ST. LOUIS

Tony Romo probably won’t play. It probably won’t matter.

PREDICTION: ‘Boys 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $400

Minnesota (+3.5) over CHICAGO

Minnesota needs play much better than they did against the Lions last week. I think they will. This game will be a toss-up, so take the points.

PREDICTION: Vikes 17, Bears 16
WAGER: $300

New Orleans (+3) over CAROLINA

Close call, but the Saints need this one worse than Carolina, so I’ll take the points.

PREDICTION: Saints 31, Panthers 27
WAGER: $400

NY GIANTS (-11) over San Francisco

I thought the Niners might be able to sneak up on the red-hot, undefeated Super Bowl champs…until the Giants already pulled their sleep-walk loss the previous week vs. Cleveland. They won’t overlook two games in a row.

PREDICTION: Giants 31, Niners 17
WAGER: $800

HOUSTON (-9.5) over Detroit

I’ll never feel right about taking the Texans by 10 points, but Detroit was bad before losing Roy Williams and Jon Kitna. Hopefully, Houston rid themselves of their bad early-season mojo in their last-second win last week.

PREDICTION: Houston 34, Lions 13
WAGER: $600

NY Jets (-3) over OAKLAND

This spread seems a little small to me. It’s times like these, I wish I still had a bookie.

PREDICTION: Jets 27, Raiders 17
WAGER: $700

WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Cleveland

Washington looked great up until last week, Cleveland looked terrible until last week. Let’s just pretend last week didn’t happen, shall we?

PREDICTION: Skins 27, Browns 17
WAGER: $700

GREEN BAY (+1.5) over Indy

Are the Colts back, or are the ravens just that bad? Probably a combination of both. But on the road, without Addai, giving points -- I’ll hold off another week or two before I start believing again.

PREDICTION: Packers 27, Colts 24
WAGER: $100

Seattle (+11) over TAMPA BAY

Seneca Wallace and Charlie Frye. Those are your Seahawk QB’s. That really makes me want to give those 11 points. Then I remember that Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese are the Buc QB’s. The Bucs win this one, but not by 11.

PREDICTION: Bucs 24, ‘Hawks 16
WAGER: $200

Denver (+3) over NEW ENGLAND

I don’t like what I see in the Pats, so I’m not willing to give points to a good team against them (bad Denver defense notwithstanding). But I do think at home on a Monday night, the pats can probably pull out a nail-biter.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Broncos 23
WAGER: $200

Want to see which announcers will be calling your team’s game? Want to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country? (If so, what the hell are you doing not having DirecTV?) If you answered "yes" to either of those questions, then just check out this link

Theoretical Gambling: Week 6

It’s Friday night, and everyone knows what that means -- it's time for another weekend of fake gambling! And, after a winning record last week, I have even more make-believe money with which to wager. That's right, had I been in Vegas last weekend, I would've left with more money than I came with -- not including hotel, buffet, and hooker expenses. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Week 5 record: 8-6
Week 5 vs. The Spread: 7-7
Money won/lost: +$800
Season total (gain/loss): $5,800 (+$800)

Time for this week’s picks, Daddy needs a new pair of imaginary shoes...

SAINTS (-7) over Raiders

The Saints have lost some real heartbreakers this year. I say this week they take out their frustration on the sideshow that is the Raiders and whoever’s acting as their figurehead coach this week.

PREDICTED SCORE: Saints 34, Raiders 16
“MONEY” WAGERED: $500

Ravens (+4.5) over COLTS

The Colts are really lucky to be 2-2. I think they make it to 3-2, but not easily.

PREDICTION: Indy 24, Ravens 20
WAGER: $200

JETS (+5.5) over Bengals

No Carson Palmer, no points.

PREDICTION: Jets 30, Bengals 10
WAGER: $800

Panthers (+1.5) over BUCS 


The Panthers are “win ugly” pick this year – you’re rarely impressed, but they usually score more points than the other team. And most teams that do that win.

PREDICTION: Panthers 20, Bucs 16
WAGER: $600

FALCONS (+2.5) over Bears 


I really like the Falcons, and this week they are at home and getting points. So why do I feel so worried about this pick? Because at some point, Atlanta is bound to put up one of those “They’re still the Falcons”-type games.

PREDICTION: Falcons 17, Bears 16
WAGER: $100

Lions (+13) over VIKINGS

Adrian Petersen, a 300 yard game? It could happen. Still, I think Detroit keeps it relatively close.

PREDICTION: Vikes 30, Lions 20
WAGER: $100

TEXANS (-3) over Dolphins 


The actual Cinderella team in the AFC so far against the pre-season pick for the Cinderella team in the AFC. After last week’s debacle, the winless Texans really need a ‘W’. If only just to head off those “Houston, we have a problem” jokes at the pass.

PREDICTION: Texans 27, Dolphins 20
WAGER: $200

Jaguars (+3) over BRONCOS 


Two teams I really don’t know what to think of, but I have to pick one. So, when in doubt, go with the underdog and take the points. Especially when they’re going against a sieve of a defense.

PREDICTION: Jags 31, Broncos 28
WAGER: $200

REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams 


The Redskins look for real. If they are, they will cover this spread easily.

PREDICTION: Skins 34, Rams 13
WAGER: $700

Eagles (-4.5) over NINERS 


No Westbrook, no problem. No way the Eagles lose three in a row. The Niners, on the other hand, lose three in a row better than any team in the league.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, Niners 20
WAGER: $1,000

Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS

The Cowboys are due to play well. Kurt Warner is due to throw like 60 times for 500 yards and 4 INTs.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 38, Cards 28
WAGER: $500

Packers (-2) over SEAHAWKS 


Are the Packers and Seahawks this bad? I’d like to think so. I just wish both teams could lose this game.
PREDICTION: Pack 27, Seahawks 24
WAGER: $300

Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS 


This should’ve been a great matchup – the rematch of last year’s AFC championship, and quite possibly a preview of this year’s. Instead, it’s a test of which AFC power has fallen further since last year.

PREDICTION: Chargers 24, Pats 21
WAGER: $600

BROWNS (+8) over Giants 


The Giants are due for a stinker, the Browns need something, anything, to keep from letting this season become a complete embarrassment.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Browns 20
WAGER: $200

My Wife's Survivor Pick: Washington
My Wife's Record So Far: 5-0

Theoretical Gambling: Week 5

Let's take look at the matchups awaiting us in Week 5 of the 2008 NFL season, shall we? To make things a little more interesting, I'm going to gift myself 5,000 theoretical dollars with which to gamble on said NFL games to how quickly I can lose it all. The only rules for the bets are these: 1) I have to bet all the money every week, and 2) Minimum bet: $100, Maximum bet: $1,000.

HOUSTON (+3) over Indianapolis

A "due" game. As in Houston is due, simple as that. And I think Indy is in trouble. Big trouble.

Predicted score: HOUSTON 23, INDY 20
"Money" wagered: $100

Tennessee (-2½) over BALTIMORE

I can't believe thousands of people are going to pay to see this game when they could be home watching a good game.

Prediction: TENNESSEE 20, BALTY 17
Wager: $200

San Diego (-6½) over MIAMI

San Diego is the toughest team to pick in the league -- they seem capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, anytime, anywhere. But I think they've overcome the rough start, and are ready to pile up a few W's. Meanwhile, for the time being I'm just going to pretend that Dolphins/Pats game never happened.

Prediction: BOLTS 31, PHINS 17
Wager: $500

Kansas City (+10) over CAROLINA

Carolina should win easily, but I'm not sold on their offense, so I'm gambling the Chiefs can keep it close -- or possibly stick in a meaningless TD late -- and cover.

Prediction: PANTHERS 24, CHIEFS 16
Wager: $300

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Washington

This game should come down to Brian Westbrook -- if he's healthy, the Eagles win, if he's not out, the Redskins have the edge. Westbrook has a strong history of playing hurt, and maintaining his effectiveness so I say he plays, and plays well. Washington is either a lot better than I thought or not. I'm still going with "not".

Prediction: PHILLY 30, SKINS 20
Wager: $200

Chicago (-3½) over DETROIT

Detroit is bad. Like really, really bad.

Prediction: BEARS 31, LIONS 20
Wager: $1,000

Atlanta (+7) over GREEN BAY

The Falcons = Better than everybody thinks. The Packers = Worse than everybody thinks. The Pack still wins it if Rodgers plays the whole game, but the Falcons ride Michael Turner to keep it close.

Prediction: PACKERS 24, FALCONS 20
Wager: $300

N.Y. GIANTS (-7½) over Seattle

I think the loss of Burress could hurt the Giants a lot more than people think, but the Seahawks look pretty bad. This is a toughie. I think the Giants will win by about a TD, so it's really a coin flip. That's it, I'll flip a coin. Hold on while I find one... Okay, got one. Flipping it... Heads. Wait, which team was heads again? Oh, I never figured that part out. Alright, let's say Seattle is heads -- since they have the head of a seahawk on their helmets. Okay, flip #2... It's tails -- Giants. Can't argue with that kind of science.

Prediction: GIANTS 27, SEAHAWKS 20
Wager: $100

Tampa Bay (+3½) over DENVER

I like really like Tampa's D. I really don't like Denver's D. Also, Brian Griese put up big numbers in a Bucs victory at Chicago the last time Griese played a former team, so maybe he'll psych himself up to make this stop #2 on the Vendetta '08 Tour. This is the type of BS reasoning you have to come up with to rationalize picks in close games in the NFL.

Prediction: BUCS 27, BRONCOS 24
Wager: $200

New England (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO

I like the Mike Martz Niner offense. Sure, there are sacks and hurries, as well as fumbles and interceptions. But there are also first downs, even touchdowns (unlike the models run by Jim Hostler, Mike McCarthy, even Norv Turner). I've grown to like J.T. O'Sullivan's big play ability. I've even stopped saying that "JTO" stands for "Just Turn Overs". But that being said, there is just no way in hell the Niners beat the Pats this week. Not after New England lost its last game. Not after the embarrassment the Pats suffered at the hands of the lowly Dolphins in Foxborough. And certainly not after Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game.

Prediction: PATS 27, NINERS 17
Wager: $1,000

Buffalo (+1) over ARIZONA

Buffalo is easy to like -- young, improving, and clutch. I know their fast start has been aided by some luck, and I know it will come crashing down some week soon. Probably on the road. I'm just betting it's not this week. Arizona is in disarray, and while I think they'll give the Bills a close game, I'm betting on another late field goal to win for this year's darkhorse darlings of the NFL.

Prediction: BILLS 24, CARDS 23
Wager: $200

DALLAS (-17½) over Cincinnati

Cincy has about as much chance to win this game as Bengals starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has of stealing Jessica Simpson away from Tony Romo -- about 20%. Remember, Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, so he could probably trick her pretty easily. More easily than the average person, I mean.

Prediction: 'BOYS 37, BENGALS 17
Wager: $500

JACKSONVILLE (-3½) over Pittsburgh

You know how some bands lose most of their original members but insist on still calling themselves by the same name? Once I saw The Band in NYC at some club, and there wasn't anybody I knew on stage. No Levon Helm. No Robby Robertson. Just some old fat dude from The Band, and a bunch of supporting players. The Steelers offense might be one more hit on the achy-breaky Ben Roethlisberger from looking like that version of The Band -- Charlie Batch at QB, Mewelde Moore at RB. And with the way their O-line looks, that hit might come sooner rather than later.

Prediction: JAGS 27, STEELERS 20
Wager: $300

Minnesota (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

This is another pure, straight-from-the-ass, "due" game. The Vikes are just due to win one, simple as that. And Adrian Peterson is due for an extra large game. The Saints D might be just the guys to give it up. Still, I'd feel better about this pick if both teams agreed not to play a QB. Or at least if Minnesota's wasn't named "Gus".

Prediction: VIKES 30, SAINTS 28
Wager: $100

My Wife's Survivor Pick: Carolina*
My Wife's Record So Far: 4-0

*My pick: Irrelevant (Why? Because I managed to get eliminated in just 4 weeks -- in a triple-elimination league. Yes, I'm aware that I suck, and that my wife is better at picking football games than I am. Nothing to see here, please move along.)