Theoretical Gambling: Week 5

Let's take look at the matchups awaiting us in Week 5 of the 2008 NFL season, shall we? To make things a little more interesting, I'm going to gift myself 5,000 theoretical dollars with which to gamble on said NFL games to how quickly I can lose it all. The only rules for the bets are these: 1) I have to bet all the money every week, and 2) Minimum bet: $100, Maximum bet: $1,000.

HOUSTON (+3) over Indianapolis

A "due" game. As in Houston is due, simple as that. And I think Indy is in trouble. Big trouble.

Predicted score: HOUSTON 23, INDY 20
"Money" wagered: $100

Tennessee (-2½) over BALTIMORE

I can't believe thousands of people are going to pay to see this game when they could be home watching a good game.

Prediction: TENNESSEE 20, BALTY 17
Wager: $200

San Diego (-6½) over MIAMI

San Diego is the toughest team to pick in the league -- they seem capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, anytime, anywhere. But I think they've overcome the rough start, and are ready to pile up a few W's. Meanwhile, for the time being I'm just going to pretend that Dolphins/Pats game never happened.

Prediction: BOLTS 31, PHINS 17
Wager: $500

Kansas City (+10) over CAROLINA

Carolina should win easily, but I'm not sold on their offense, so I'm gambling the Chiefs can keep it close -- or possibly stick in a meaningless TD late -- and cover.

Prediction: PANTHERS 24, CHIEFS 16
Wager: $300

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Washington

This game should come down to Brian Westbrook -- if he's healthy, the Eagles win, if he's not out, the Redskins have the edge. Westbrook has a strong history of playing hurt, and maintaining his effectiveness so I say he plays, and plays well. Washington is either a lot better than I thought or not. I'm still going with "not".

Prediction: PHILLY 30, SKINS 20
Wager: $200

Chicago (-3½) over DETROIT

Detroit is bad. Like really, really bad.

Prediction: BEARS 31, LIONS 20
Wager: $1,000

Atlanta (+7) over GREEN BAY

The Falcons = Better than everybody thinks. The Packers = Worse than everybody thinks. The Pack still wins it if Rodgers plays the whole game, but the Falcons ride Michael Turner to keep it close.

Prediction: PACKERS 24, FALCONS 20
Wager: $300

N.Y. GIANTS (-7½) over Seattle

I think the loss of Burress could hurt the Giants a lot more than people think, but the Seahawks look pretty bad. This is a toughie. I think the Giants will win by about a TD, so it's really a coin flip. That's it, I'll flip a coin. Hold on while I find one... Okay, got one. Flipping it... Heads. Wait, which team was heads again? Oh, I never figured that part out. Alright, let's say Seattle is heads -- since they have the head of a seahawk on their helmets. Okay, flip #2... It's tails -- Giants. Can't argue with that kind of science.

Prediction: GIANTS 27, SEAHAWKS 20
Wager: $100

Tampa Bay (+3½) over DENVER

I like really like Tampa's D. I really don't like Denver's D. Also, Brian Griese put up big numbers in a Bucs victory at Chicago the last time Griese played a former team, so maybe he'll psych himself up to make this stop #2 on the Vendetta '08 Tour. This is the type of BS reasoning you have to come up with to rationalize picks in close games in the NFL.

Prediction: BUCS 27, BRONCOS 24
Wager: $200

New England (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO

I like the Mike Martz Niner offense. Sure, there are sacks and hurries, as well as fumbles and interceptions. But there are also first downs, even touchdowns (unlike the models run by Jim Hostler, Mike McCarthy, even Norv Turner). I've grown to like J.T. O'Sullivan's big play ability. I've even stopped saying that "JTO" stands for "Just Turn Overs". But that being said, there is just no way in hell the Niners beat the Pats this week. Not after New England lost its last game. Not after the embarrassment the Pats suffered at the hands of the lowly Dolphins in Foxborough. And certainly not after Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game.

Prediction: PATS 27, NINERS 17
Wager: $1,000

Buffalo (+1) over ARIZONA

Buffalo is easy to like -- young, improving, and clutch. I know their fast start has been aided by some luck, and I know it will come crashing down some week soon. Probably on the road. I'm just betting it's not this week. Arizona is in disarray, and while I think they'll give the Bills a close game, I'm betting on another late field goal to win for this year's darkhorse darlings of the NFL.

Prediction: BILLS 24, CARDS 23
Wager: $200

DALLAS (-17½) over Cincinnati

Cincy has about as much chance to win this game as Bengals starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has of stealing Jessica Simpson away from Tony Romo -- about 20%. Remember, Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, so he could probably trick her pretty easily. More easily than the average person, I mean.

Prediction: 'BOYS 37, BENGALS 17
Wager: $500

JACKSONVILLE (-3½) over Pittsburgh

You know how some bands lose most of their original members but insist on still calling themselves by the same name? Once I saw The Band in NYC at some club, and there wasn't anybody I knew on stage. No Levon Helm. No Robby Robertson. Just some old fat dude from The Band, and a bunch of supporting players. The Steelers offense might be one more hit on the achy-breaky Ben Roethlisberger from looking like that version of The Band -- Charlie Batch at QB, Mewelde Moore at RB. And with the way their O-line looks, that hit might come sooner rather than later.

Prediction: JAGS 27, STEELERS 20
Wager: $300

Minnesota (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

This is another pure, straight-from-the-ass, "due" game. The Vikes are just due to win one, simple as that. And Adrian Peterson is due for an extra large game. The Saints D might be just the guys to give it up. Still, I'd feel better about this pick if both teams agreed not to play a QB. Or at least if Minnesota's wasn't named "Gus".

Prediction: VIKES 30, SAINTS 28
Wager: $100

My Wife's Survivor Pick: Carolina*
My Wife's Record So Far: 4-0

*My pick: Irrelevant (Why? Because I managed to get eliminated in just 4 weeks -- in a triple-elimination league. Yes, I'm aware that I suck, and that my wife is better at picking football games than I am. Nothing to see here, please move along.)