Theoretical Gambling: Week 11

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 10 record: 11-3*
Season Record: 58-25
Week 10 vs. Spread: 12-2**
Season vs. Spread: 48-33-2
Week 10 Money won/lost: +$7,200
Season total (gain/loss): $14,800 (+$9,800)

* For the third straight week! That’s 33-9! Feel my heat!
** 22-6 over the past two weeks! 22-6! Against the spread! Seriously, you probably shouldn't even read this, your eyes might catch fire.

I’ve done so well of late, I’m having to change to the betting rules you see there at the top of this post. Not because I want to, but because the simple mathematics are forcing me to. See, when I started with $5,000, a $1,000 max bet made all the sense in the world. But now that I have built my fortune up to almost $15,000, I’ll be needing to bet nearly that on average.

So here are the new rules moving forward: Since the pot is now about 3x what it used to be, I’m adjusting the limits by the same ratio -- minimum bet is $300, maximum is $3,000. Hopefully, I would have to adjust this back down anytime soon.

Now, let’s make these picks before I cool off, shall we? I’m already off to a good start, going 1-0 both overall and against the spread after almost picking the score of the Thursday night game exactly:

JETS (+4) over Pats

PREDICTED SCORE: Jets 27, Pats 24
“MONEY” WAGERED: $300

*ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: Jets 34, Pats 31*

FALCONS (-6) over Broncos

Have I mentioned I was the first guy I know on the Falcons bandwagon. I have? Every week? Really? Well... Good, because it’s getting mighty crowded in here about now.

PREDICTION: Falcons 31, Broncos 24
WAGER: $300

Raiders (-10.5) over DOLPHINS

The Raiders look terrible right now -- maybe even the worst team in the league (no offense to Lions fans) -- and the ‘Phins are playing well, but I never like to give double-digit points, especially with teams who don’t put up a ton of points.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 27, Raiders 17
WAGER: $300

Ravens (+7) over GIANTS

I’ve got the Giants as the best team in football (yes, even above the undefeated Titans). But I love the Ravens too, and they’re just the kind of defense-and-no-mistakes team which can keep the score close with them.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Ravens 23
WAGER: $300

Texans (+8.5) over COLTS

The Colts are back, but not back to the blow-out-the-mediocre-teams Colts of years past. I say they win it, but don’t cover.

PREDICTION: Colts 28, Texans 20
WAGER: $300

Bears (+3.5) over PACKERS

The battle for the lead in the NFC Central. I like the Pack here, but these tough rivalry games are usually close affairs. On top of that, both Aaron Rodgers and Rex Grossman (if he plays in Kyle Orton’s absence) are QB’s who embody the whole saying, “He makes just enough throws to keep both teams in the game.”

PREDICTION: Pack 24, Bears 21
WAGER: $2,000

Titans (-2.5) over JAGS

12 straight regular season wins for the Titans, and I don’t think they’re running the table, so when will they lose? I do think it’ll probably be a division game, as those are usually the toughest -- teams you play twice, who know you well, and how they match up. So this the week? I’m saying no.

PREDICTION: Titans 20, Jags 17
WAGER: $1,000

Eagles (-9) over BENGALS

Here’s the Eagles in a nutshell: They struggle against the good teams in the league, and destroy the bad ones. Cincy = Bad one.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, Bengals 17
WAGER: $2,000

CHIEFS (+5.5) over Saints

Despite their undeniable suckiness, the Chiefs keep every game close even against good teams (last three weeks: Jets, Bucs, Chargers -- all heartbreakingly close losses). But can they stay with a potentially high-scoring offense like the Saints? Since I’ve been successfully riding “Take KC and the points” train the last few weeks, I’ll stay the course for now.

PREDICTION: Saints 28, Chiefs 23
WAGER: $400

PANTHERS (-14.5) over Lions

Remember how I said I don’t like giving away double-digit points when taking teams who don’t put up a lot of points? well, a whole ‘nother set of rules are in play when you’re talking about the Lions.

PREDICTION: Panthers 31, Lions 13
WAGER: $500

Chargers (+5) over STEELERS

The Chargers are a complete mystery to me, so I refuse to take them against any good team, especially on the road. But I do think they can keep this one close, and an upset wouldn’t completely shock me.

PREDICTION: Steelers 23, Chargers 20
WAGER: $2,000

Rams (+6) over NINERS

The Niners giving 6 points? Seriously? I love the Niners, but I can’t be a party to that kind of fiscal insanity during this economic downturn. I can take them to bounce back from their ugly loss on Monday night to get Samurai Mike his first W, however.

PREDICTION: Niners 30, Rams 24
WAGER: $1,000

Cardinals (-3) over SEAHAWKS

What is up with this spread? I’m all for doubting the Cards, but this spread is really low in my opinion. Just what the gambler ordered.

PREDICTION: Cards 31, ‘Hawks 20
WAGER: $2,000

Vikings (+4) over BUCS

I like the Bucs, but I have a lot of trouble giving points in their games -- I just don’t trust their offense enough. Especially when they play quality opponents (or Adrian Peterson). I say the Bucs win, but the Vikes keep in tight.

PREDCTION: Bucs 23, Vikings 20
WAGER: $1,500

Cowboys (-1) over REDSKINS

Romo is back, so will the Cowboys be? My Magic 8 Ball says: “Ask again later”, but I don’t have that kind of time, so I’m just going to go with “Yes”.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Skins 24
WAGER: $400

Browns (+5) over BILLS

The Bills are in freefall. Meanhile the Browns may be able to build something under Brady Quinn. Then again, maybe they won’t. Either way, I’m not giving them any points in this one.

PREDICTION: Bills 24, Browns 20
WAGER: $500