Theoretical Gambling: Week 8

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 7 record: 8-6
Season Record: 25-16
Week 7 vs. Spread: 6-8
Season vs. Spread: 20-21
Week 7 Money won/lost: -$900
Season total (gain/loss): $5,200 (+$200)

THUD! That was the sound of my ego falling back to earth in Week 7. After two wiing weeks I starting to think I should start making some real wagers, but Week 7 reminded me why I don’t. Although I had a winning record overall, I had a losing record against the spread, and took it on the chin in terms of (fake) money. I’m still technically ahead in the wallet, but if I were really in Vegas –- or even just betting with a bookie -– I’d be paying the “vig” (the nominal service fee), and would therefore probably be around even, if not a little behind.

So, with my previously Mike Nolan-sized ego back in check, and my confidence in myself lower than it is in JT O’Sullivan, I’m back for redemption:

RAVENS (-7) over Raiders

I don’t like the Ravens, I’m not impressed, I don’t think they’re very good. And yet, I’m picking them and giving a TD. This is why you shouldn’t trust me.

PREDICTED SCORE: Ravens 20, Raiders 10
“MONEY” WAGERED: $100

Cards (+4) over PANTHERS

This matchup looks like a push to me on paper, in which case, Carolina should only get 1.5 points for the home-field advantage. Since they're getting 4, I'll take the Cards in pillownail-biter.

PREDICTION: Panthers 27, Cards 24
WAGER: $400

Bucs (+2.5) over COWBOYS

The Cowboys look bad and the Bucs look good, but I say the ‘Boys find a way to eek this out. But I still can’t give points with the way they’re playing right now.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 24, Bucs 23
WAGER: $300

Redskins (-8) over LIONS

The Skins have been playing up to the good teams, and down the bad ones. I say that stops this week.

PREDICTION: Skins 34, Lions 16
WAGER: $1,000

DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Bills

The Bills aren’t quite as good as they’ve looked, so they’re due to take one on the chin.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 20, Bills 17
WAGER: $100

Rams (+7.5) over PATRIOTS

The Rams are on a roll, and the Pats… Well, I have no idea what the Pats are. Don’t get me wrong -– they’ll win, I just have no idea how easily. “When it doubt, say 7 points”, that’s what I always say –- starting now.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $100

Chargers (-3.5) over Saints

Both these teams need to play a lot better. I think the Bolts are the better bet to do it –- especially with Reggie Bush out.

PREDICTION: Bolts 31, Saints 27
WAGER: $500

Chiefs (+13.5) over JETS

The Jets win this one easily against the LJ-less Chiefs, who are also starting the legendary Tyler Thigpen at QB.

PREDICTION: Jets 27, Chiefs 13
WAGER: $300

Falcons (+9) over EAGLES

It’s getting crowded on the Matt Ryan/Falcons bandwagon, glad a got a good seat early. The game’s in Philly, so I think they pull it out, but Atlanta keeps it close.

PREDICTION: Philly 27, Falcons 20
WAGER: $200

JAGUARS (-7) over Browns

I think the Jags are poised to make a run. A game against Cleveland seems like a good place to start.

PREDICTION: Jags 27, Browns 17
WAGER: $300

TEXANS (-9) over Bengals

Same as above, except replace “Jags” with “Texans”, and “Browns” with “Bengals”.

PREDICTION: Texans 31, Bengals 20
WAGER: $500

Giants (+3) over STEELERS

BREAKING NEWS: Santonio Holmes is a pothead. He just got busted with weed in his car, and won’t play this weekend. I probably would’ve picked the Giants anyway, this makes it a no-brainer.

PREDICTION: Giants 24, Steelers 20
WAGER: $300

NINERS (-5) over Seahawks

New Math: Singletary – Nolan + a crappy opponent = A rare Niner win.

PREDICTION: Niners 27, ‘Hawks 20
WAGER: $1,000

Colts (+3.5) over TITANS

Going into the season: Titans underrated, Colts overrated. Now: not so much. The Titans are great, but they can’t win them all. Is this the week they lose? I say “no”, but I’m worried.

PREDICTION: Titans 23, Colts 20
WAGER: $100

To see which announcers will be calling your team’s game, or to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country check out this site.