Theoretical Gambling: Week 7

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! Another winning week, another pile of fake money acquired by yours truly (now up $1,100 after two weeks). Another couple of weeks like this, and I may actually have to go to Vegas with some real money. I know, that sounds like famous last words, but as "Fast Eddie" Felson said, "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." In the spirit of that fictional quote from a fictional man in a fictional story, let's get to some fiction wagering:

First, a quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it.

Week 6 record: 9-4
Season Record: 17-10
Week 6 vs. Spread: 7-6
Season vs. Spread: 14-13
Week 6 Money won/lost: +$300
Season total (gain/loss): $6,100 (+$1,100)

Tennessee (-8) over KANSAS CITY

Tennessee is my pick for “The best team you feel least comfortable about giving away double-digit points with”. You know they’ll win, but will they score enough to cover? With Larry Johnson suspended for this game, Tennessee could easily win by 10 without scoring 20, but that’s a hard thing to bet on happening. Not that I’m going to let that stop me.

PREDICTED SCORE: Titans 17, Chiefs 7
“MONEY” WAGERED: $400

San Diego (-1) over BUFFALO

In a 1 point spread game, you should just pick the team who you think will win. Therefore, I’m picking this one like I used to when I was a kid. San Diego are 3-3, and Buffalo is 4-1, so which records seem more likely after this game: San Diego 3-4 and Buffalo 5-1, or San Diego 4-3 and Buffalo 4-2. I’m going with the latter.

PREDICTION: Bolts 24, Bills 21
WAGER: $700

Pittsburgh (-10) over CINCINNATI

I thought those NFL ads last year featuring Steven Jackson and Shawne Merriman were the best of all time. But the new one this year following Troy Palomalu and LaDainian Tomlinson from birth -- through childhood and college -- to a thundering collision on the field against each other, is even better. That has noting to do with this game, but it’s more interesting than saying “Cincy sucks”.

PREDICTION: Steelers 30, Bengals 17
WAGER: $500

MIAMI (-2.5) over Baltimore

I can’t believe I’m picking the Dolphins and giving points. If you would’ve told me that would happen against any team besides KC or possibly St. Louis, and I’d have laughed, and probably thought you were crazy. Now I’d probably think you’re a witch, and try to burn you.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 24, Ravens 17
WAGER: $300

Dallas (-7) over ST. LOUIS

Tony Romo probably won’t play. It probably won’t matter.

PREDICTION: ‘Boys 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $400

Minnesota (+3.5) over CHICAGO

Minnesota needs play much better than they did against the Lions last week. I think they will. This game will be a toss-up, so take the points.

PREDICTION: Vikes 17, Bears 16
WAGER: $300

New Orleans (+3) over CAROLINA

Close call, but the Saints need this one worse than Carolina, so I’ll take the points.

PREDICTION: Saints 31, Panthers 27
WAGER: $400

NY GIANTS (-11) over San Francisco

I thought the Niners might be able to sneak up on the red-hot, undefeated Super Bowl champs…until the Giants already pulled their sleep-walk loss the previous week vs. Cleveland. They won’t overlook two games in a row.

PREDICTION: Giants 31, Niners 17
WAGER: $800

HOUSTON (-9.5) over Detroit

I’ll never feel right about taking the Texans by 10 points, but Detroit was bad before losing Roy Williams and Jon Kitna. Hopefully, Houston rid themselves of their bad early-season mojo in their last-second win last week.

PREDICTION: Houston 34, Lions 13
WAGER: $600

NY Jets (-3) over OAKLAND

This spread seems a little small to me. It’s times like these, I wish I still had a bookie.

PREDICTION: Jets 27, Raiders 17
WAGER: $700

WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Cleveland

Washington looked great up until last week, Cleveland looked terrible until last week. Let’s just pretend last week didn’t happen, shall we?

PREDICTION: Skins 27, Browns 17
WAGER: $700

GREEN BAY (+1.5) over Indy

Are the Colts back, or are the ravens just that bad? Probably a combination of both. But on the road, without Addai, giving points -- I’ll hold off another week or two before I start believing again.

PREDICTION: Packers 27, Colts 24
WAGER: $100

Seattle (+11) over TAMPA BAY

Seneca Wallace and Charlie Frye. Those are your Seahawk QB’s. That really makes me want to give those 11 points. Then I remember that Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese are the Buc QB’s. The Bucs win this one, but not by 11.

PREDICTION: Bucs 24, ‘Hawks 16
WAGER: $200

Denver (+3) over NEW ENGLAND

I don’t like what I see in the Pats, so I’m not willing to give points to a good team against them (bad Denver defense notwithstanding). But I do think at home on a Monday night, the pats can probably pull out a nail-biter.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Broncos 23
WAGER: $200

Want to see which announcers will be calling your team’s game? Want to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country? (If so, what the hell are you doing not having DirecTV?) If you answered "yes" to either of those questions, then just check out this link