Theoretical Gambling: Week 10

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 9 record: 11-3*
Season Record: 47-22
Week 8 vs. Spread: 10-4
Season vs. Spread: 36-31-2
Week 8 Money won/lost: +$3,400
Season total (gain/loss): $7,600 (+$2,600)

* For the second straight week!

Finally found my groove last week with a new formula (which is really my old formula): pick the three to five games which seem the most obvious –- you know, the ones where you go “What is Vegas thinking with that line?” – and bet approximately 3/4 of the pot on them, and then lay the remaining ~1/4 of the pot on all the other games combined (or essentially, the as close to the minimum $100 bet as possible for each).

After one very successful week using this formula, I feel very good about my chances the rest of the year. Tune in next week to see how far my confidence has fallen. In fact, it’s already started:

BROWNS (-3) over Broncos

PREDICTED SCORE: Browns 34, Denver 27
“MONEY” WAGERED: $200

*ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: Broncos 34, Broncos 30*

That’s right, I’m already 0-1 this week, both overall and against the spread (and down $200), because I made the unforgivable mistake of having faith in the Browns. Of course, it would’ve been just as unforgivable to place my trust in the defense-and-running-game-deficient Broncos.

Without further ado, here are the rest of my Week 10 picks:

Jaguars (-7) over LIONS

I hate taking the Jags, especially after the week they’ve had – giving the Bengals their first win, followed by lots of off-the-field controversy in Jax-ville – but I feel significantly better picking against Daunte Culpepper, starting his first game for the Lions one week after joining the team.

PREDICTION: Jags 31, Lions 16
WAGER: $200

Titans (-3) over BEARS

Is this the week the Titans lose? I’m going to answer that question with a question: Did you realize Rex Grossman is starting?

PREDICTION: Titans 23, Bears 16
WAGER: $1,000

PATS (-4) over Bills

The Bills are officially on the skids. The Pats are paying better and at home. These is the kinds of superficial analysis you can expect from me – especially when trying to differentiate between all the very similar AFC East teams.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Bills 17
WAGER: $400

FALCONS (-1) over Saints

I’m on the Falcon bandwagon. Do I have to write this every week, or have I made it clear yet?

PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Saints 24
WAGER: $1,000

Rams (+8.5) over JETS

The Jets consistently underwhelm (in part due to Brett Favre’s weekly Pick-6), so I’m not giving a TD+ to anyone, even the Lambs.

PREDICTION: Jets 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $300

Seahawks (+8.5) over DOLPHINS

The ‘Phins are playing well, so I’m taking them here, but I don’t think they have the fire-power to give 9 points, even to the lowly ‘Hawks

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 24, ‘Hawks 16
WAGER: $300

Packers (+2.5) over VIKINGS

The Pack almost pulled off the big upset against the Titans I predicted last week, and are playing very well. If they can hold Adrian Peterson reasonably in check this week and force Frerotte to beat them, they should do it again.

PREDICTION: Pack 27, Vikes 20
WAGER: $1,000

Panthers (-9.5) over RAIDERS
The Raiders are an absolute joke. That’s all I have to say about that.

PREDICTION: Panthers 30, Raider 13
WAGER: $1,000

Chiefs (+15.5) over CHARGERS

The way the Bolts have been playing, I can’t give away double-digit points. Also, the Chiefs have beat the spread and almost pulled off upsets two weeks straight.

PREDICTION: Bolts 24, Chiefs 20
WAGER: $300

Colts (+3.5) over STEELERS

The Steelers still likely win this one (whether Big Ben plays or not) because the Colts are not up to their normal standards this season, but I think they can still keep it close.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Colts 21
WAGER: $300

Giants (+3) over EAGLES

The Giants may be the best team in football. The Eagles are playing well again, but aren’t in the Giants class. Why are the eagles favored? Good question.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Eagles 24
WAGER: $1,000

Ravens (PK) over TEXANS

I’m officially OFF the Texans bandwagon, especially with Sage “Don’t Trust Me” Rosenfels starting at QB for Houston.

PREDICTION: Ravens 23, Texans 20
WAGER: $400

49ers (+9.5) over CARDINALS

This is more out of hope the Niners don’t embarrass themselves on a rare national TV game than anything logical.

PREDICTION: Cards 30, Niners 21
WAGER: $200

To see which announcers will be calling your team’s game, or to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country check out this site.