Week 5 Postmortem: The Gary Kubiak/Sage Rosenfels Murder-Suicide Watch

I’ll wait until all the games are done to total up the records and accounting from my theoretical gambling spree, but after Sunday at least three things seem clear: 1) I won money this week (theoretically), 2) Sage Rosenfels just got axed from Gary Kubiak’s Christmas card list, and 3) Sage Rosenfels just got added to Tony Dungy’s Christmas card list.

Of all the winner/loser (non-spread) picks I made this week, Houston was the one I felt the least sure about. Sure, I they were due, and the Colts are a mere shadow of their former selves, but still: it’s Colts v.Texans, and we all know how that usually turns out.

Through 56+ minutes of the game, I had forgotten all about those doubts – probably because I was too busy patting myself on the back for being right. Unfortunately, it appears Rosenfels, playing for the sick Matt Schaub, was busy doing the same thing. After turning in a great performance just when the Texans needed it most, Sage lived down to his name, producing an unbelievable choke job just when the Texans could afford it least. Houston, picked by many to be a darkhorse playoff contender this year, was 0-3, and their coach, Gary Kubiak was starting to feel the heat. They badly needed a win, and they played like it, jumping out to a 17 point lead. The Colts, on the other hand, were in nearly as bad a spot (worse, considering their usual expectations): 1-2 -- and lucky to have the "1" after a crazy 4th quarter comeback to win in Minnesota -- and about to fall to 1-3.

But, similar to their game in Minnesota, the Colts again refused to quit down big on the road, scoring a TD with 4:04 remaining to draw within 10. Their attempt at an onside kick failed, so Rosenfels and Co. took over, just needing a couple of first downs to ice his team’s first win. After two short runs – and two quick Indy timeouts – the Texans faced a 3rd and 8, and that’s when things got crazy. Rosenfels dropped back to pass, then scrambled left, getting so near the sticks, he felt he could get the first down with one good John Elway-esque lunge/dive thing. He very well may have gotten the mark, had he held onto the ball. But before he landed, the ball was knocked lose, and Gary Brackett scooped it up and rambled 68 yards for a score.

Now the score was suddenly 27-24, and the Colts could smell blood in the water. And Texans could smell the stank coming off Rosenfels’ decaying performance – he quickly fumbled again, leading to another Colts TD, then followed that up with a game-clinching interception into a sea of Colt defenders without a Texan in site. For those of you scoring at home, that’s three possessions resulting three turnovers in three minutes. That’s efficiency, my friends.

The Texans now drop to 0-4, all but eliminating them from the playoff hunt, and raising questions about Kubiak’s job security -- not to mention Sage Rosenfels' mental and physical well-being.

Meanwhile, elsewhere around the league:

--The Philadelphia Eagles, everybody’s consensus pick as the 2nd best team in the league to Dallas after their MNF shootout in Week 2, suffered their second straight loss, falling to 2-3. The ease with which they dispatched the Rams in the opening week and put points on the board at Dallas in Week 2 had everybody raving, but the Rams are the Rams, and the Cowboys D has been known to give up points in bunches in the past. Since then, the Iggles eeked out an ugly win vs. a banged-up Steeler team, caught a beat-down at Chicago, and lost at home to the Skins after jumping out to a 14-0 1st quarter lead. Does that sound like a dominant team to you? Suddenly, Washington -- a team written off by many prognosticators despite making the playoffs last year (unlike Philly) -- looks to be head and shoulders above them -- especially after playing all their NFC East road games already on their way to a 4-1 record. [UPDATE: Brian Westbrook broke two ribs Sunday -- that's not going to help Philly's chances.]

--Also at 2-3 after predictions of a Super Bowl run are the San Diego Chargers. This is what I wrote about them in the weekend preview:

“San Diego is the toughest team to pick in the league -- they seem capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, anytime, anywhere.”

Of course, I followed that up by writing this:

“But I think they've overcome the rough start, and are ready to pile up a few W's.”

In my defense, they were playing the Dolphins, and had no excuse for playing so poorly. Still, they're the Chargers, and that's what they do-- underachieve right up until the point you give up on them, then start flashing their talent. The next time I start judging the Bolts on what they should do based on their talent, somebody please remind me that Norv Turner is still their head coach.

--But for every underachieving enigma of a team threatening to implode when they should be rolling, there's an overachieving team jelling right before our eyes into a force to be reckoned with. Buffalo has looked like a budding power in the AFC East -- at least until Sunday, when starting QB Trent Edwards was knocked out less than five minutes into the game, leading to a blowout loss to Arizona (they're still 4-1), The Dolphins appear to be a contender for most improved team this year. Baltimore suffered a tough, controversial loss (due to an iffy roughing the passer call late) to undefeated Tennessee this week, but looks to be much better than last year's squad.

But my pick for the biggest pleasant surprise so far this year is the performance of the Atlanta Falcons under first-year coach (and famous no-name) Mike Smith. Michael Turner has lived up to all the hype, producing prolifically for Atlanta, just as he did when given a chance in San Diego. But the highlight has to be Matt Ryan, who I must admit I was never overly impressed with at Boston College, despite all the acclaim (I thought his high number of INT's in college did not bode well for his NFL chances). Ryan has looked like the real deal already, and with young skill players surrounding him, they could be a power in the NFC for years to come. Especially if they get that guy Vick back. What, too soon?

--I know the O-line could've done a better job protecting him, the receivers dropped several passes, and it didn't help that Frank Gore was under-utilized, but after his three pick game against the Pats, I’m officially back to calling the Niners QB “Just Turn Overs” until further notice. I'm also back to calling Mike Nolan "Dead Man Walking".