Week 7 Postmortem: Random Interval Power Rankings

We’ve reached the 1/2.42857-way point of the NFL regular season, so it seems appropriate to do a power ranking.
But seriously, why now? While most TV shows, newspaper columns, and blogs like to do weekly or quarterly rankings, I find they’re worthless. I don’t dig the weekly thing because it’s hard to tell how much any game is good play by one team or bade play by the other. Besides, you shouldn’t judge very much based any one game. And so my teams would not change much from week to week.

As for the quarterly thing, that’s cool, but it seems so rigid. What if the teams are really making a switch before—do you have to wait until the next week to show it? And how well do you know the teams after Week 4. Some teams have only played 3 games, how can you really gauge where they’re headed. Most people had Dallas and Philly at the top of their rankings after four weeks (I know, I would’ve –- maybe that’s why I’m already out of my survivor pool), and where are they now? That’s how crazy the NFL has been this year.

I guess that’s why I believe that in the NFL -- like in college football, where expectations have a lot to do with rankings -- you should wait until you know the teams a little bit before you go ranking them, since any movement after will be based off that. Or maybe I’m just too lazy to rank the teams all the time, and I’m only do it now because I can’t think of another topic. Nah, that can’t be it.

So, check out the list, criticize me if you must, but remember one thing: This is a snap-shot. I don't really believe some of the teams at the top of these rankings belong there, and there are quite a few teams in the middle of the pack -- even some toward the back of the middle of the pack -- who could be at the top by season's end. With that said, let’s take a look at the first ever ‘The Examined Life’s Random Interval Power Rankings, presented by Cialis’:

1. Tennessee Titans -- That’s right, the best team in the NFL right now has Kerry Collins as their starting QB.
2. New York Giants -- The defending world champs have put up back-to-back lackluster performances, but I still think they can turn it on when they need to.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers -- The Steelers are down to their 3rd string running back… And he’s looking great.
4. Carolina Panthers -- They are always capable of delivering a real stinker when you least expect it (see: Week 6 vs. Tampa), but they also look a little scary when Delhomme and Smith are hooking up.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- I like to think of the Bucs as “Titans Lite”.
6. Arizona Cardinals -- No, your eyes don’t deceive you, I have the Arizona Cardinals as a Top 5 NFL team right now. But I think that says more about the consistency of the NFL than anything else.
7. Buffalo Bills -- This year’s Jags? They have the inexperienced QB making like a good game manager, the two-headed monster at RB, and a stingy D.
8. Washington Redskins -- They’re down, they’re up, they’re down again. The Washington Redskins: The 2008 NFL Poster Team.
9. Dallas Cowboys -- This ranking would be higher for the Tony Romo Cowboys, and lower if it was the Brad Johnson edition. Instead, think of this as a combination: The Tony Johnson Cowboys.
10. Denver Broncos -- I don’t think they can stop anybody, and they’re in my Top 10. Did I mention it’s been a crazy year?
11. Philadelphia Eagles -- They aren’t the same without Westbrook, and it’s no guarantee they’ll have him consistently the rest of the way (he’s been known to get dinged up). Still, I see them moving up from this spot.
12. Indianapolis Colts -- See directly above, only substitute “Addai” for “Westbrook”.
13. San Diego Chargers -- LT is not the LT of old. Until that changes, they’re not that scary.
14. New England Patriots -- This is probably too high, but I can’t help but keep thinking that if the Pats can somehow turn Cassel into a decent game manager they could still come back like those pesky Red Sox.
15. Green Bay Packers -- Aaron Rodgers can look really good or really bad. Sound like any other Green Bay QB's you can think of?
16. Chicago Bears -- Kyle Orton: Better than you thought.
17. Atlanta Falcons -- Better than anybody thought. Way better.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Not as good as anybody thought.
19. Baltimore Ravens They’re probably lower than they deserve to be, but I don’t trust Flacco. If he plays solidly, they can be “Bucs Lite”, which I guess would make them “Titans Lite Lite”
20. New York Jets -- They are the classic “Any given Sunday” team – they could beat or lose to just about anybody at any time.
21. New Orleans Saints -- Consistently inconsistent.
22. Houston Texans -- They’re dangerous. Not necessarily all that good. But dangerous.
23. Miami Dolphins -- He might not be the coach, and it’s still early is the process, but this looks like a Parcells team.
24. Minnesota Vikings -- Not nearly as good on the field as they are on paper. Probably because on paper the QB is just one of 22 positions, and on the field it’s a lot more.
25. Cleveland Browns -- They can’t score. Like, at all.
26. St. Louis Rams -- Higher than the Niners despite just firing their coach. Awesome.
27. San Francisco 49ers -- I don’t wanna talk about it.
28. Seattle Seahawks -- Wow, they went from perennial division winner to bad really fast, didn’t they?
29. Oakland Raiders -- Oakland may have won on Sunday, and they do have some young talent (especially at RB), but they still have a puppet coach and a decaying corpse calling all the shots.
30. Kansas City Chiefs -- They’re a one star team who’s star is petulant, suspended, and past his prime. And that’s the good news.
31. Cincinnati Bengals -- Marvin Lewis is so fired, he can’t even feign interest in his press conferences anymore.
32. Detroit Lions -- No talent, no direction, no hope.

UPDATE: I mentioned in my Friday post that I think the new LaDainian Tomlinson/Troy Palomalu Nike commercial is the new record holder for Best NFL Ad Of All Time, so it should come as no surprise that it was directed by one of all-time favorite directors, David Fincher. If you haven't seen it -- in which case you probably don't like football much, since it's always on during games -- or just want to check it out again, here it is (hat tip to FilmDrunk.com for the link):

Week 6 Postmortem: Alcoa Presents "Fantastic Finishes" & Dead Nolan Walking

When I was growing up in the 80's, one of things I most looked forward to on Sundays in the Fall and Winter -- besides the Niners kicking the shit out of whoever was unlucky enough to be playing them that day, of course -- was a feature which ran exclusively during the later (1 pm Pacific) AFC games on NBC. While I usually wasn't all that into whatever game they were airing -- usually an AFC duel -- I knew that at some point in the 4th quarter they would cut to commercial and I'd hear the legendary Harry Kalas (although, for the record, I prefer my Kalas shaved) utter those four magic words: "Alcoa Presents... 'FANtastic Finishes'." This would be followed by highlights of some unbelievable ending to a game from a few years earlier. It was like history class for sports nerds like myself, and I made sure I never missed it.

(I'd love to embed a video here to enlighten those who were too young to enjoy "Fantastic Finishes", and for nostalgia purposes for those who do remember, but a Google video search actually comes up empty. Sure, there are a few mentions around the web, but no videos?! How could you desert me now, when I need you most, YouTube?! I thought you cared about me.)

So, why do I mention this now, you ask? Because there were a bunch of great finishes in the NFL this weekend, you jackass! In fact, there was a record five (5) games this weekend decided by a score in the final 10 seconds of the game. Two of these involved upsets of high-and-mighty NFC East teams. And with the Giants getting upset in Cleveland on Monday Night, the most powerful and hyped of all the divisions were swept! Wait, they weren't? The Eagles won? But they were down 9 in the 4th quarter on the road! How the hell did this happen?!

Glad you asked, imaginary reader.

Mike Nolan happened. He always does, doesn't he Niner fans? Yes, the king of bad clock management, questionable 4th down decisions, and unbelievably bad replay challenges was at it again on Sunday. This time, however, he decided to concentrate his entire focus on blowing the game solely through use of the replay system. In fact, he pulled off a kind of triple crown of bad replay usage -- the non-review of an obvious bad call, a review of an obvious good call, and (in it's NFL debut) a replay of a missed field goal, which wasn't even actually reviewable (not that it stopped him from throwing away a challenge, mind you). Let's start at the top:

THE BAD CALL

The Niners led 3-0 as the Eagles drove the ball into their territory. On a 3rd and 3, the Niners had a chance to hold Philly to a FG with a stop before Donovan McNabb hit Hank Baskett (who, by the way, is reportedly engaged to Kendra Wilkinson of "Girls Next Door" fame -- but can't go public or risk losing her part on the show) for a first down. Only a quick replay by FOX clearly showed the ball came loose when Baskett hit the ground and should've been ruled "no catch".

FOX analyst Brian "Bent Pinky" Baldinger correctly said that Nolan should challenge the call. Then FOX showed another replay, making the case for a challenge even more obvious. Still, no red flag from Nolan. Baldinger continued to insist the Niners had to challenge the call as McNabb led his team up to the line so slowly, I could've sworn it was the end of Super Bowl XXXIX, and Donovan was getting ready to blow chucks. But Nolan never challenged, the play counted, and the Eagles scored an important TD on the drive.

According to Matt Maiocco, 15 seconds passed from the showing of the replay on TV, and the next snap, yet Nolan contended not only that he "didn't have time" to throw the flag (he says he found out it wasn't catch after the next snap), but that his system for evaluating replay challenges works just fine. Sorry, Mike, but at least one of those statements is false.

THE GOOD CALL

Having realized he screwed up the previous play by not challenging, Nolan next did what he always seems to -- overcompensates by taking the next available opportunity to do what he should've done earlier -- even if it's not a good time. Nolan has made a habit of knee-jerk reactions like this ("What, you think I don't go for it on 4th down enough? Okay, fine, I'll go for it on the next one no matter how inappropriate it is under those specific game conditions"). So the next time a semi-questionable play occurred, out came the hanky. Only this time, it was on a clearly good catch by DeSean Jackson along the sidelines. Jackson not only got two feet down, it may have even been three.

So why the challenge? Nolan claimed he "wanted to see if he (Jackson) was bobbling the ball before he went out. Not that he was bobbling according to the replay (the only thing that matters since that's the criteria by which the play is reviewed), not even that he thought he was bobbling, juts that he "wanted to see" if he was bobbling the ball. Gee Mike, we're all curious about it, but is it really worth a timeout just to satisfy your curiosity? As Gwen Knapp of the Chronicle pointed out in her column on the game, replays are for sure things, not wild guesses -- especially ones in the 1st half, since wrong ones automatically coast you the bonus 3rd challenge you may need late in the game.

THE... WAIT, WHAT? REALLY?

So, down to one challenge, his timeouts dwindling, and behind in the game, Nolan decided to make history with his final challenge. Not only would he waste it on a good call -- a call that had no chance of being over-turned -- he actually wasted it on a call which was not eligible to be challenged. He challenged a made field goal which, while it did appear may have missed, only put his team down by 7 points with plenty of time left. His team was still in it, they needed their timeouts (especially since they waste so many -- and they quickly did just that, wasting their last one), might've needed that last challenge (they almost did), and the call in question was made by an official who had a better angle on the play than any replay did.

Nolan tried his best to slough this off on any number of other reasons -- he shouldn't have been allowed to challenge (this is kind of like the drunk driver blaming the bartender for not taking his keys), there should be a sign to give coaches whether kicks are low enough (below the uprights) to be challenged, there should be better TV angles on kicks to make it easier to challenge, and he's still not sure the call was right. Never mind the fact that he's clearly not sure about the challenge rules, never mind the fact he didn't mention any of these loopholes when the new challenge rules were instated during the off-season, never mind the shifting of blame, this was an indefensible move based solely on the game situation.

In short, Mike Nolan is the worst challenger since the space shuttle. What? Too soon?

So, what does Nolan say about all this in the press conference? The typical coach speak about having to get better ("And that includes the coaching staff") cliches? Nope. The "Pin this one on me, I lost this game" bravado that might win him some fans in the locker room? No siree. At least a token "We'll have to look into our challenge system" BS. Nuh-uh. Just more patented Nolan Denial. Why not, that's what he does best.

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- the Niners cannot become a good team until they have a good head coach. That man is not named Mike Nolan.

Week 5 Postmortem: The Gary Kubiak/Sage Rosenfels Murder-Suicide Watch

I’ll wait until all the games are done to total up the records and accounting from my theoretical gambling spree, but after Sunday at least three things seem clear: 1) I won money this week (theoretically), 2) Sage Rosenfels just got axed from Gary Kubiak’s Christmas card list, and 3) Sage Rosenfels just got added to Tony Dungy’s Christmas card list.

Of all the winner/loser (non-spread) picks I made this week, Houston was the one I felt the least sure about. Sure, I they were due, and the Colts are a mere shadow of their former selves, but still: it’s Colts v.Texans, and we all know how that usually turns out.

Through 56+ minutes of the game, I had forgotten all about those doubts – probably because I was too busy patting myself on the back for being right. Unfortunately, it appears Rosenfels, playing for the sick Matt Schaub, was busy doing the same thing. After turning in a great performance just when the Texans needed it most, Sage lived down to his name, producing an unbelievable choke job just when the Texans could afford it least. Houston, picked by many to be a darkhorse playoff contender this year, was 0-3, and their coach, Gary Kubiak was starting to feel the heat. They badly needed a win, and they played like it, jumping out to a 17 point lead. The Colts, on the other hand, were in nearly as bad a spot (worse, considering their usual expectations): 1-2 -- and lucky to have the "1" after a crazy 4th quarter comeback to win in Minnesota -- and about to fall to 1-3.

But, similar to their game in Minnesota, the Colts again refused to quit down big on the road, scoring a TD with 4:04 remaining to draw within 10. Their attempt at an onside kick failed, so Rosenfels and Co. took over, just needing a couple of first downs to ice his team’s first win. After two short runs – and two quick Indy timeouts – the Texans faced a 3rd and 8, and that’s when things got crazy. Rosenfels dropped back to pass, then scrambled left, getting so near the sticks, he felt he could get the first down with one good John Elway-esque lunge/dive thing. He very well may have gotten the mark, had he held onto the ball. But before he landed, the ball was knocked lose, and Gary Brackett scooped it up and rambled 68 yards for a score.

Now the score was suddenly 27-24, and the Colts could smell blood in the water. And Texans could smell the stank coming off Rosenfels’ decaying performance – he quickly fumbled again, leading to another Colts TD, then followed that up with a game-clinching interception into a sea of Colt defenders without a Texan in site. For those of you scoring at home, that’s three possessions resulting three turnovers in three minutes. That’s efficiency, my friends.

The Texans now drop to 0-4, all but eliminating them from the playoff hunt, and raising questions about Kubiak’s job security -- not to mention Sage Rosenfels' mental and physical well-being.

Meanwhile, elsewhere around the league:

--The Philadelphia Eagles, everybody’s consensus pick as the 2nd best team in the league to Dallas after their MNF shootout in Week 2, suffered their second straight loss, falling to 2-3. The ease with which they dispatched the Rams in the opening week and put points on the board at Dallas in Week 2 had everybody raving, but the Rams are the Rams, and the Cowboys D has been known to give up points in bunches in the past. Since then, the Iggles eeked out an ugly win vs. a banged-up Steeler team, caught a beat-down at Chicago, and lost at home to the Skins after jumping out to a 14-0 1st quarter lead. Does that sound like a dominant team to you? Suddenly, Washington -- a team written off by many prognosticators despite making the playoffs last year (unlike Philly) -- looks to be head and shoulders above them -- especially after playing all their NFC East road games already on their way to a 4-1 record. [UPDATE: Brian Westbrook broke two ribs Sunday -- that's not going to help Philly's chances.]

--Also at 2-3 after predictions of a Super Bowl run are the San Diego Chargers. This is what I wrote about them in the weekend preview:

“San Diego is the toughest team to pick in the league -- they seem capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, anytime, anywhere.”

Of course, I followed that up by writing this:

“But I think they've overcome the rough start, and are ready to pile up a few W's.”

In my defense, they were playing the Dolphins, and had no excuse for playing so poorly. Still, they're the Chargers, and that's what they do-- underachieve right up until the point you give up on them, then start flashing their talent. The next time I start judging the Bolts on what they should do based on their talent, somebody please remind me that Norv Turner is still their head coach.

--But for every underachieving enigma of a team threatening to implode when they should be rolling, there's an overachieving team jelling right before our eyes into a force to be reckoned with. Buffalo has looked like a budding power in the AFC East -- at least until Sunday, when starting QB Trent Edwards was knocked out less than five minutes into the game, leading to a blowout loss to Arizona (they're still 4-1), The Dolphins appear to be a contender for most improved team this year. Baltimore suffered a tough, controversial loss (due to an iffy roughing the passer call late) to undefeated Tennessee this week, but looks to be much better than last year's squad.

But my pick for the biggest pleasant surprise so far this year is the performance of the Atlanta Falcons under first-year coach (and famous no-name) Mike Smith. Michael Turner has lived up to all the hype, producing prolifically for Atlanta, just as he did when given a chance in San Diego. But the highlight has to be Matt Ryan, who I must admit I was never overly impressed with at Boston College, despite all the acclaim (I thought his high number of INT's in college did not bode well for his NFL chances). Ryan has looked like the real deal already, and with young skill players surrounding him, they could be a power in the NFC for years to come. Especially if they get that guy Vick back. What, too soon?

--I know the O-line could've done a better job protecting him, the receivers dropped several passes, and it didn't help that Frank Gore was under-utilized, but after his three pick game against the Pats, I’m officially back to calling the Niners QB “Just Turn Overs” until further notice. I'm also back to calling Mike Nolan "Dead Man Walking".