Random Rant: "Just when I thought I was out..."

The Niners suck this year, so I put a lot less thought into the team than I'm used to. Don't get me wrong, I still spend an ungodly amount of time watching their games, reading about them online, even posting about them. But growing up in the 80's and 90's, I was used to spending most of my waking hours thinking about them. Now, because of their record and recent history, I care whether they win or lose, but more of my thought goes toward the future -- how are the young players progressing, do they have the right coaches, is the ownership holding them back, etc. Back then, the next week's game was always foremost in my mind, as was the playoff picture. Those are two things I never think about anymore.

But still, come Sunday morning -- or this week, Monday afternoon -- I start thinking about the game, the match-ups, the team's chances. And once the game starts, the competitive juices really start to flow. If the Niners keep it close, I get into it and want to see them win. That's why Monday night's game was so painful. It was a Michael Corleone/Godfather III Special: Just when I thought I was out... they pulled me back in.

I had low expectations going in, but then Rossum returns the opening kickoff for a TD, Morgan makes a circus catch for a TD, the Niners lead 14-3 and suddenly my hopes are raised. By the time the Cards had pulled within 14-13, I was pretty sure we'd seen the best the Niners had and the Cards were just warming up, but then Vernon Davis makes a circus catch for a TD, and I'm feeling hopeful again. When Shaun Hill turned from "effective game manager" to "JTO-like turnover machine" and the Niners lost the lead with 4:16 left (after leading for 55+ minutes), I was ready to throw in the towel, but then Hill drove them down to the Arizona 20 yard line.

After Hill's "Look at me, I'm Brett Favre! Wait, check that -- I'm not" interception, I thought for sure the game was over, but once the Niners stopped the Cards and got the ball back, drove to the 2 yard line and had a 1st and goal with 40+ seconds remaining, I thought for sure we'd win. Unfortunately, that's when the Niners finally decided to go ahead and cut to the chase by crapping the bed. The mistakes came in rapid succession:

1) After Jason Hill went down on the 2 yard line, the Niners were confused whether they should just spike the ball or put in their goal line package first (when there is absolutely no reason to). Because of this, and their inability to line up correctly, it took them 24 seconds to finally kill the clock.

2) Instead of doing the obvious -- and smart -- by calling at least one pass play (and probably two), they ran the ball. Quick passes, like a fade or quick slant for instance, take only 4 or 5 seconds, meaning the Niners could've easily fit in two before finding themselves in a 4th down situation. Even one pass before a run wouldn't have changed the situation much. As close as Frank Gore came from staying on his feet and getting in, his run for no gain changed everything -- by the time the Niners ran another play they only had time for one.

3) Having mismanaged their time so badly they changed a 4 down opportunity into a 2 play opportunity, the Niners used their last play -- their one chance to win the game -- to hand the ball to a backup RB. If this was from the 1 yard line, I still would complain about the ball not going to Gore. But the ball was on the 2 1/2 yard line. Any run from there is misguided. Especially given how the Cards had stacked the middle of their line. Double-especially when considering offensive coordinator Mike Martz and head coach Mike Singletary had extra time to think up/discuss this because officials were reviewing the previous play.

The bottom line: The Niners ran out of time with one down left despite having 44 seconds to play with. They gained 50+ yards on the first three plays of the drive (all passes to emerging star Jason Hill) in just 22 seconds, then proceeded to run only two real plays (if you can even call them that) in the final 44 seconds. That's inexcusable. Still, despite these mistakes, this was one of the Niners most exciting games, which only made the hurt worse, but it is a good sign. Considering the Cards were at home, it was Monday night, and some arizona players had made comments about this being a statement game, this would've been a tough test for a new coach, even if Singletary hadn't had a crazy debut two weeks ago. Everything considered, it was a impressive performance by Singletary's squad -- if a bitterly anti-climactic finish.

"We have to learn how to finish", Coach Sing said after the game, and he was right. It seems the team believes in him. A tough loss like this will be a good test. So will next weeks game against a very beatable Rams team. If the Niners win that in front of the home crowd, he may suddenly find himself with a following -- and some momentum he needs to retain the job next season. If he loses, not so much. And right now, just as I most want to completely give up on the team, I can't wait to see how they play next week.

Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in.

For Who? For What?: JoePa FTW!

This wrap-up of the weekend in both college and pro football is named after the classic post-game quote immortalized by all-time favorite/whipping boy Ricky Watters.

I decided to shake things up, and start writing about the entire weekend in football – college included. Part of this springs from the fact my Niners are stinking it up so bad, I’m having trouble putting too much thought into the NF of L, and part of it has to do with the fact when I started this blog it was too early in the season to seriously discuss who the best teams in college were. As I’ve previous made clear, I’m not a fan of jumping into to bed and ranking teams before we have a chance to get to know each other a little better.

But with the leaves changing colors (I’m assuming, because the leaves in LA are on strike), and the teams coming more into focus, I figured it was time to unleash The EL’s first ever Top Ten in college football:

1. Texas (8-0)
2. Alabama (8-0)
3. Penn State (9-0)
4. USC (6-1)
5. Oklahoma (7-1)
6. Georgia (7-1)
7. Florida (6-1)
8. Texas Tech (8-0)
9. Oklahoma State (7-1)
10(tie). Utah (8-0)/Boise State (7-0)

Notes: A few differences between my list and the polls – both BCS and AP: I have USC over Oklahoma based on their superior defense; I have both Georgia and Florida over Texas Tech based on playing stiffer competition, but if Tech beats Texas this week, you can expect to see some leap-frog action; So as to not slight either of the undefeated teams from the Mountain West, I have Utah and Boise State tied for the final spot.

Penn State may be 3rd on my list –- and 3rd in both the BCS and AP as well –- but after their big win at the horseshoe over OSU this weekend, I feel they may have the best chance of any team in the nation to play for the National Championship in January. Both of the schools ahead of them, Texas and Alabama, still have to each get through a highly-ranked opponent on the road, a rivalry game, and a conference title game. Meanwhile, Penn State has only one speedbump on its schedule, and the Big Ten is one of the last remaining conferences without a championship game gauntlet to run.

#1 Texas is the hottest team in the nation, maybe even it's best, but they are in an epically rough portion of their schedule and the hard work isn't done yet. Coming off a big win over Oklahoma State, the 'Horns have another tough matchup this week, at undefeated Texas Tech. If the ‘Horns can slip past the Red Raiders, they get the Aggies, and while Texas A&M is 1-5 this year, you know the Aggies will save their best game for the Longhorns. get past the Aggies and Texas lands themselves a showdown vs. the Big 12 North Division champ. That’ll likely mean a rematch with #11 Missouri, this time at a neutral site – Kansas City, where there could be a yet another difficult obstacle -- snowy conditions.

Alabama’s schedule isn’t any easier. They have a tough matchup at #19 LSU in two weeks, and a home game against feisty rival Auburn after Thanksgiving. If the Crimson Tide can survive that, they face an even tougher challenge in the Georgia Dome for the SEC Championship Game – either #7 Georgia or #10 Florida.

As good as both the ‘Horns and Tide are, I simply can’t see them both running the table. Penn State, on the other hand, has just one ranked team left to face, #21 Michigan State, and that game’s at home. If they avoid a stumble there – and I can’t think of the last time the Spartans played spoiler to anyone’s title hopes – ol’ JoePa himself will be having a last laugh on critics (like myself) who called him over the hill years ago.

Around the NFL:

--Don't look now, but the Carolina Panthers are the 2nd best team in the NFC. You may want to argue, but I bet you'll have a hard time doing it. It's not that I think the Panthers are dazzling -- they're not. But this is a process of elimination deal here, and besides the New York Giants, I defy you to name me one team you'd be confident in wagering on against them. Last week, I had them behind only the Giants among NFC teams in my power poll, just ahead of Tampa and Arizona. They beat the Cards this week (albeit at home) while Tampa lost to a the limping former juggernaut known as the Dallas Cowboys. The next team down the list is the Redskins, who struggled to beat Detroit.

Then you start to think about their weaknesses, and they aren't too many. Delhomme isn't the best, but he's proven he can get deep in the playoffs. The two-headed running attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is solid. We all know Steve Smith is a beast. And on D, Julius Peppers is looking like he did a few years ago, which is a good thing. There's a lot of time left in the season, and the Panthers have a very tough run toward the end of the season, but suddenly the Panthers look like a solid darkhorse contender for the Super Bowl.

--The Niners aren't really worth talking about right now, and I don't want to force things, but I do have to say a word about Mike Singletary (with more probably to come). He showed more fire today than any coach or player for some time. And he made more moves fans have been dying for than Nolan ever made. "Samurai Mike" may not be a good coach, but at least for one day he made me believe he is. And even if he fails, I'm glad he pulled JustTurnOvers and sent VD to the showers because that's what they deserved, and his passion is what they need.

BREAKING NEWS: MIKE NOLAN NOW THE MOST COCKY UNEMPLOYED GUY IN THE WORLD

Gone. Gone are suits. Gone are the denial-ridden press conferences. The stubborn refusal to admit any mistake in strategy or personnel. The gameday decisions so dumb it made your brain hurt just to think about how dumb they were. And, thank you sweet heavens, gone is one of the worst replay challengers ever seen on the playing fields of the NFL (never mind his misleading percentage -- it doesn't count the plays he should've challenged). Gone is Mike Nolan. Not dead, mind you -- though his head coaching career may well be -- just fired from the 49ers.

There's no way to know if interim (or is he?) head coach Mike Singletary will be any better than Nolan, but as a longtime Niner fan I can tell you I'm almost certain he won't be any worse on Sundays. Nolan deserves due credit for helping to assemble a tremendously more talented roster than the one he inherited from the Terry Donahue Holocaust Administration. But where he failed -- as "The Face of The Franchise" as he was so fond of calling himself, and as a gameday coach -- he failed miserably. And while we don't know how Singletary will fare on Sundays, I think he's already got me more inspired knowing I'll be hearing him answer the tough questions after games the rest of the year.

There's talk the Niners may simply name Singletary head coach (no "interim") and are at present negotiating a long-term contract with him. While I like Singletary, and think he has the leadership qualities needed to maximize the Niners talent, this would be a mistake. The reason I'm so in favor of this move -- besides not having to listen to Nolan talk anymore -- is that it gives Singletary a more than half-season trial run as H.C. to show what he brings to the table, and gives the Niners brass a chance to see if they like what they see. The brass may think they already know what they've got in Singletary -- he's been there three and a half years -- but people change when they become the man in charge. Nolan did.

Nolan was inspiring right out of the gate. Those questionable quirks, like the "WIN THE WEST" banner his first year, were kind of endearing. But, like in most relationships, that wears off fast. And if you can't win 1/3 of your games, you could look like a Chinese baby and people still won't think you're cute. Especially when you spend most of your time talking down to them like they don't understand how well you're really doing.

Week 5 Postmortem: The Gary Kubiak/Sage Rosenfels Murder-Suicide Watch

I’ll wait until all the games are done to total up the records and accounting from my theoretical gambling spree, but after Sunday at least three things seem clear: 1) I won money this week (theoretically), 2) Sage Rosenfels just got axed from Gary Kubiak’s Christmas card list, and 3) Sage Rosenfels just got added to Tony Dungy’s Christmas card list.

Of all the winner/loser (non-spread) picks I made this week, Houston was the one I felt the least sure about. Sure, I they were due, and the Colts are a mere shadow of their former selves, but still: it’s Colts v.Texans, and we all know how that usually turns out.

Through 56+ minutes of the game, I had forgotten all about those doubts – probably because I was too busy patting myself on the back for being right. Unfortunately, it appears Rosenfels, playing for the sick Matt Schaub, was busy doing the same thing. After turning in a great performance just when the Texans needed it most, Sage lived down to his name, producing an unbelievable choke job just when the Texans could afford it least. Houston, picked by many to be a darkhorse playoff contender this year, was 0-3, and their coach, Gary Kubiak was starting to feel the heat. They badly needed a win, and they played like it, jumping out to a 17 point lead. The Colts, on the other hand, were in nearly as bad a spot (worse, considering their usual expectations): 1-2 -- and lucky to have the "1" after a crazy 4th quarter comeback to win in Minnesota -- and about to fall to 1-3.

But, similar to their game in Minnesota, the Colts again refused to quit down big on the road, scoring a TD with 4:04 remaining to draw within 10. Their attempt at an onside kick failed, so Rosenfels and Co. took over, just needing a couple of first downs to ice his team’s first win. After two short runs – and two quick Indy timeouts – the Texans faced a 3rd and 8, and that’s when things got crazy. Rosenfels dropped back to pass, then scrambled left, getting so near the sticks, he felt he could get the first down with one good John Elway-esque lunge/dive thing. He very well may have gotten the mark, had he held onto the ball. But before he landed, the ball was knocked lose, and Gary Brackett scooped it up and rambled 68 yards for a score.

Now the score was suddenly 27-24, and the Colts could smell blood in the water. And Texans could smell the stank coming off Rosenfels’ decaying performance – he quickly fumbled again, leading to another Colts TD, then followed that up with a game-clinching interception into a sea of Colt defenders without a Texan in site. For those of you scoring at home, that’s three possessions resulting three turnovers in three minutes. That’s efficiency, my friends.

The Texans now drop to 0-4, all but eliminating them from the playoff hunt, and raising questions about Kubiak’s job security -- not to mention Sage Rosenfels' mental and physical well-being.

Meanwhile, elsewhere around the league:

--The Philadelphia Eagles, everybody’s consensus pick as the 2nd best team in the league to Dallas after their MNF shootout in Week 2, suffered their second straight loss, falling to 2-3. The ease with which they dispatched the Rams in the opening week and put points on the board at Dallas in Week 2 had everybody raving, but the Rams are the Rams, and the Cowboys D has been known to give up points in bunches in the past. Since then, the Iggles eeked out an ugly win vs. a banged-up Steeler team, caught a beat-down at Chicago, and lost at home to the Skins after jumping out to a 14-0 1st quarter lead. Does that sound like a dominant team to you? Suddenly, Washington -- a team written off by many prognosticators despite making the playoffs last year (unlike Philly) -- looks to be head and shoulders above them -- especially after playing all their NFC East road games already on their way to a 4-1 record. [UPDATE: Brian Westbrook broke two ribs Sunday -- that's not going to help Philly's chances.]

--Also at 2-3 after predictions of a Super Bowl run are the San Diego Chargers. This is what I wrote about them in the weekend preview:

“San Diego is the toughest team to pick in the league -- they seem capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, anytime, anywhere.”

Of course, I followed that up by writing this:

“But I think they've overcome the rough start, and are ready to pile up a few W's.”

In my defense, they were playing the Dolphins, and had no excuse for playing so poorly. Still, they're the Chargers, and that's what they do-- underachieve right up until the point you give up on them, then start flashing their talent. The next time I start judging the Bolts on what they should do based on their talent, somebody please remind me that Norv Turner is still their head coach.

--But for every underachieving enigma of a team threatening to implode when they should be rolling, there's an overachieving team jelling right before our eyes into a force to be reckoned with. Buffalo has looked like a budding power in the AFC East -- at least until Sunday, when starting QB Trent Edwards was knocked out less than five minutes into the game, leading to a blowout loss to Arizona (they're still 4-1), The Dolphins appear to be a contender for most improved team this year. Baltimore suffered a tough, controversial loss (due to an iffy roughing the passer call late) to undefeated Tennessee this week, but looks to be much better than last year's squad.

But my pick for the biggest pleasant surprise so far this year is the performance of the Atlanta Falcons under first-year coach (and famous no-name) Mike Smith. Michael Turner has lived up to all the hype, producing prolifically for Atlanta, just as he did when given a chance in San Diego. But the highlight has to be Matt Ryan, who I must admit I was never overly impressed with at Boston College, despite all the acclaim (I thought his high number of INT's in college did not bode well for his NFL chances). Ryan has looked like the real deal already, and with young skill players surrounding him, they could be a power in the NFC for years to come. Especially if they get that guy Vick back. What, too soon?

--I know the O-line could've done a better job protecting him, the receivers dropped several passes, and it didn't help that Frank Gore was under-utilized, but after his three pick game against the Pats, I’m officially back to calling the Niners QB “Just Turn Overs” until further notice. I'm also back to calling Mike Nolan "Dead Man Walking".