Theoretical Gambling: Week 11

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 10 record: 11-3*
Season Record: 58-25
Week 10 vs. Spread: 12-2**
Season vs. Spread: 48-33-2
Week 10 Money won/lost: +$7,200
Season total (gain/loss): $14,800 (+$9,800)

* For the third straight week! That’s 33-9! Feel my heat!
** 22-6 over the past two weeks! 22-6! Against the spread! Seriously, you probably shouldn't even read this, your eyes might catch fire.

I’ve done so well of late, I’m having to change to the betting rules you see there at the top of this post. Not because I want to, but because the simple mathematics are forcing me to. See, when I started with $5,000, a $1,000 max bet made all the sense in the world. But now that I have built my fortune up to almost $15,000, I’ll be needing to bet nearly that on average.

So here are the new rules moving forward: Since the pot is now about 3x what it used to be, I’m adjusting the limits by the same ratio -- minimum bet is $300, maximum is $3,000. Hopefully, I would have to adjust this back down anytime soon.

Now, let’s make these picks before I cool off, shall we? I’m already off to a good start, going 1-0 both overall and against the spread after almost picking the score of the Thursday night game exactly:

JETS (+4) over Pats

PREDICTED SCORE: Jets 27, Pats 24
“MONEY” WAGERED: $300

*ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: Jets 34, Pats 31*

FALCONS (-6) over Broncos

Have I mentioned I was the first guy I know on the Falcons bandwagon. I have? Every week? Really? Well... Good, because it’s getting mighty crowded in here about now.

PREDICTION: Falcons 31, Broncos 24
WAGER: $300

Raiders (-10.5) over DOLPHINS

The Raiders look terrible right now -- maybe even the worst team in the league (no offense to Lions fans) -- and the ‘Phins are playing well, but I never like to give double-digit points, especially with teams who don’t put up a ton of points.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 27, Raiders 17
WAGER: $300

Ravens (+7) over GIANTS

I’ve got the Giants as the best team in football (yes, even above the undefeated Titans). But I love the Ravens too, and they’re just the kind of defense-and-no-mistakes team which can keep the score close with them.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Ravens 23
WAGER: $300

Texans (+8.5) over COLTS

The Colts are back, but not back to the blow-out-the-mediocre-teams Colts of years past. I say they win it, but don’t cover.

PREDICTION: Colts 28, Texans 20
WAGER: $300

Bears (+3.5) over PACKERS

The battle for the lead in the NFC Central. I like the Pack here, but these tough rivalry games are usually close affairs. On top of that, both Aaron Rodgers and Rex Grossman (if he plays in Kyle Orton’s absence) are QB’s who embody the whole saying, “He makes just enough throws to keep both teams in the game.”

PREDICTION: Pack 24, Bears 21
WAGER: $2,000

Titans (-2.5) over JAGS

12 straight regular season wins for the Titans, and I don’t think they’re running the table, so when will they lose? I do think it’ll probably be a division game, as those are usually the toughest -- teams you play twice, who know you well, and how they match up. So this the week? I’m saying no.

PREDICTION: Titans 20, Jags 17
WAGER: $1,000

Eagles (-9) over BENGALS

Here’s the Eagles in a nutshell: They struggle against the good teams in the league, and destroy the bad ones. Cincy = Bad one.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, Bengals 17
WAGER: $2,000

CHIEFS (+5.5) over Saints

Despite their undeniable suckiness, the Chiefs keep every game close even against good teams (last three weeks: Jets, Bucs, Chargers -- all heartbreakingly close losses). But can they stay with a potentially high-scoring offense like the Saints? Since I’ve been successfully riding “Take KC and the points” train the last few weeks, I’ll stay the course for now.

PREDICTION: Saints 28, Chiefs 23
WAGER: $400

PANTHERS (-14.5) over Lions

Remember how I said I don’t like giving away double-digit points when taking teams who don’t put up a lot of points? well, a whole ‘nother set of rules are in play when you’re talking about the Lions.

PREDICTION: Panthers 31, Lions 13
WAGER: $500

Chargers (+5) over STEELERS

The Chargers are a complete mystery to me, so I refuse to take them against any good team, especially on the road. But I do think they can keep this one close, and an upset wouldn’t completely shock me.

PREDICTION: Steelers 23, Chargers 20
WAGER: $2,000

Rams (+6) over NINERS

The Niners giving 6 points? Seriously? I love the Niners, but I can’t be a party to that kind of fiscal insanity during this economic downturn. I can take them to bounce back from their ugly loss on Monday night to get Samurai Mike his first W, however.

PREDICTION: Niners 30, Rams 24
WAGER: $1,000

Cardinals (-3) over SEAHAWKS

What is up with this spread? I’m all for doubting the Cards, but this spread is really low in my opinion. Just what the gambler ordered.

PREDICTION: Cards 31, ‘Hawks 20
WAGER: $2,000

Vikings (+4) over BUCS

I like the Bucs, but I have a lot of trouble giving points in their games -- I just don’t trust their offense enough. Especially when they play quality opponents (or Adrian Peterson). I say the Bucs win, but the Vikes keep in tight.

PREDCTION: Bucs 23, Vikings 20
WAGER: $1,500

Cowboys (-1) over REDSKINS

Romo is back, so will the Cowboys be? My Magic 8 Ball says: “Ask again later”, but I don’t have that kind of time, so I’m just going to go with “Yes”.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Skins 24
WAGER: $400

Browns (+5) over BILLS

The Bills are in freefall. Meanhile the Browns may be able to build something under Brady Quinn. Then again, maybe they won’t. Either way, I’m not giving them any points in this one.

PREDICTION: Bills 24, Browns 20
WAGER: $500

Theoretical Gambling: Week 10

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 9 record: 11-3*
Season Record: 47-22
Week 8 vs. Spread: 10-4
Season vs. Spread: 36-31-2
Week 8 Money won/lost: +$3,400
Season total (gain/loss): $7,600 (+$2,600)

* For the second straight week!

Finally found my groove last week with a new formula (which is really my old formula): pick the three to five games which seem the most obvious –- you know, the ones where you go “What is Vegas thinking with that line?” – and bet approximately 3/4 of the pot on them, and then lay the remaining ~1/4 of the pot on all the other games combined (or essentially, the as close to the minimum $100 bet as possible for each).

After one very successful week using this formula, I feel very good about my chances the rest of the year. Tune in next week to see how far my confidence has fallen. In fact, it’s already started:

BROWNS (-3) over Broncos

PREDICTED SCORE: Browns 34, Denver 27
“MONEY” WAGERED: $200

*ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: Broncos 34, Broncos 30*

That’s right, I’m already 0-1 this week, both overall and against the spread (and down $200), because I made the unforgivable mistake of having faith in the Browns. Of course, it would’ve been just as unforgivable to place my trust in the defense-and-running-game-deficient Broncos.

Without further ado, here are the rest of my Week 10 picks:

Jaguars (-7) over LIONS

I hate taking the Jags, especially after the week they’ve had – giving the Bengals their first win, followed by lots of off-the-field controversy in Jax-ville – but I feel significantly better picking against Daunte Culpepper, starting his first game for the Lions one week after joining the team.

PREDICTION: Jags 31, Lions 16
WAGER: $200

Titans (-3) over BEARS

Is this the week the Titans lose? I’m going to answer that question with a question: Did you realize Rex Grossman is starting?

PREDICTION: Titans 23, Bears 16
WAGER: $1,000

PATS (-4) over Bills

The Bills are officially on the skids. The Pats are paying better and at home. These is the kinds of superficial analysis you can expect from me – especially when trying to differentiate between all the very similar AFC East teams.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Bills 17
WAGER: $400

FALCONS (-1) over Saints

I’m on the Falcon bandwagon. Do I have to write this every week, or have I made it clear yet?

PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Saints 24
WAGER: $1,000

Rams (+8.5) over JETS

The Jets consistently underwhelm (in part due to Brett Favre’s weekly Pick-6), so I’m not giving a TD+ to anyone, even the Lambs.

PREDICTION: Jets 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $300

Seahawks (+8.5) over DOLPHINS

The ‘Phins are playing well, so I’m taking them here, but I don’t think they have the fire-power to give 9 points, even to the lowly ‘Hawks

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 24, ‘Hawks 16
WAGER: $300

Packers (+2.5) over VIKINGS

The Pack almost pulled off the big upset against the Titans I predicted last week, and are playing very well. If they can hold Adrian Peterson reasonably in check this week and force Frerotte to beat them, they should do it again.

PREDICTION: Pack 27, Vikes 20
WAGER: $1,000

Panthers (-9.5) over RAIDERS
The Raiders are an absolute joke. That’s all I have to say about that.

PREDICTION: Panthers 30, Raider 13
WAGER: $1,000

Chiefs (+15.5) over CHARGERS

The way the Bolts have been playing, I can’t give away double-digit points. Also, the Chiefs have beat the spread and almost pulled off upsets two weeks straight.

PREDICTION: Bolts 24, Chiefs 20
WAGER: $300

Colts (+3.5) over STEELERS

The Steelers still likely win this one (whether Big Ben plays or not) because the Colts are not up to their normal standards this season, but I think they can still keep it close.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Colts 21
WAGER: $300

Giants (+3) over EAGLES

The Giants may be the best team in football. The Eagles are playing well again, but aren’t in the Giants class. Why are the eagles favored? Good question.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Eagles 24
WAGER: $1,000

Ravens (PK) over TEXANS

I’m officially OFF the Texans bandwagon, especially with Sage “Don’t Trust Me” Rosenfels starting at QB for Houston.

PREDICTION: Ravens 23, Texans 20
WAGER: $400

49ers (+9.5) over CARDINALS

This is more out of hope the Niners don’t embarrass themselves on a rare national TV game than anything logical.

PREDICTION: Cards 30, Niners 21
WAGER: $200

To see which announcers will be calling your team’s game, or to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country check out this site.

Theoretical Gambling: Week 9

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 8 record: 11-3
Season Record: 36-19 (65%)
Week 8 vs. Spread: 6-6-2
Season vs. Spread: 26-27-2
Week 8 Money won/lost: -$1,000
Season total (gain/loss): $4,200 (-$800)

Okay, I suck. For two straight weeks I’ve stunk it up. Although, to be fair, last week I went 11-3 picking straight up, and pushed on two of those wins, where just one more point would’ve made me a winner in terms of “money” -- both for the week and the year. Still, you know what they say: “Excuses are like assholes, they’re full of shit.” Or something like that.

Because of the rankness of my picks against the spread recently, I’m doing something a little different this week -– maxing out on the games I feel good about, and going with the minimum on the others. I’m also keeping it short and sweet this week, so let’s get to it:

Texans (+4.5) over VIKINGS

The Vikes win, but don’t have the fire-power to blow anyone out (Caveat: Unless AD goes OFF).

PREDICTED SCORE: Vikes 24, Texans 20
“MONEY” WAGERED: $100

Jags (-7.5) over BENGALS

The Jags blow right now. The Bengals blow now and forever.

PREDICTION: Jags 27, Bengals 17
WAGER: $100

Bucs (-8.5) over CHIEFS

The Chiefs were feisty last week, but at some point the whole No-LJ-and-3rd-string-QB thing has to catch up to them.

PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Chiefs 16
WAGER: $100

Ravens (+1.5) over BROWNS

The Ravens are looking solid, and Joe Flacco is a big reason. He’s a much better all-around athlete than I thought.

PREDICTION: Ravens 21, Browns 17
WAGER: $100

BILLS (-6) over Jets

The Jets suck. Favre might be hurt. And the Bills are at home. I say they cover…just barely.

PREDICTION: Bills 27, Jets 20
WAGER: $100

Cards (-2.5) over RAMS

The Cards are playing good ball right now. Surprisingly, so are the Rams. Only the cards can keep it up.

PREDICTION: Cards 31, Rams 24
WAGER: $1,000

Lions (+13) over BEARS

The Lions have been a little feisty of late. I say they keep this one close.

PREDICTION: Bears 30, Lions 20
WAGER: $100

Packers (+4.5) over TITANS

This is where I go out on a limb. The Titans can’t win ‘em all. I think they lose this one. At home. I know, I’m a crazy person. No one can possibly predict what I might do next.

PREDICTION: Packers 24, Titans 23
WAGER: $100

Dolphins (+3.5) over BRONCOS

The ‘Phins can run, the Broncos can’t stop the run. Sometimes, it’s just that simple. (I hope.)

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 28, Broncos 24
WAGER: $100

Falcons (-2.5) over RAIDERS

I love the Falcons. I know I’ve mentioned that before, but I’m going to keep saying it, so it’ll be easier to link back it to later when they’re a playoff team in a year or so.

PREDICTION: Falcons 20, Raiders 17
WAGER: $1,000

GIANTS (-9) over Cowboys

Brad Johnson sucks. The Giants might be the best team in the NFL. Remember what I said about it being east sometimes?

PREDICTION: Giants 30, Cowboys 20
WAGER: $100

Eagles (-6.5) over SEAHAWKS

The Eagles look to be rounding into shape. The ‘Hawks shouldn’t be able to keep up, even at home.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, ‘Hawks 17
WAGER: $1,000

Patriots (+6) over COLTS

The shine is off this usually great matchup, but I think they’re closely matched talent-wise.

PREDICTION: Colts 27, Pats 24
WAGER: $100

Steelers (+2) over REDSKINS

17 times the Redskins have played a game the week before a Presidential election. 17 times whether the Redskins won or lost, the incumbent party did the same.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Skins 21
WAGER: $200

Obama (-6) over McCAIN

See above. 17 for 17 -- that's serious history. I wonder if Obama will be wearing a Big Ben jersey and cheering for the Steelers on Monday night.

PREDICTION: Obama 336, McCain 202
WAGER: The future of the world

To see which announcers will be calling your team’s game, or to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country check out this site.

Theoretical Gambling: Week 8

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! A quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it. For previous installments, check out the link on the right hand side of the page, or simply click here.

Week 7 record: 8-6
Season Record: 25-16
Week 7 vs. Spread: 6-8
Season vs. Spread: 20-21
Week 7 Money won/lost: -$900
Season total (gain/loss): $5,200 (+$200)

THUD! That was the sound of my ego falling back to earth in Week 7. After two wiing weeks I starting to think I should start making some real wagers, but Week 7 reminded me why I don’t. Although I had a winning record overall, I had a losing record against the spread, and took it on the chin in terms of (fake) money. I’m still technically ahead in the wallet, but if I were really in Vegas –- or even just betting with a bookie -– I’d be paying the “vig” (the nominal service fee), and would therefore probably be around even, if not a little behind.

So, with my previously Mike Nolan-sized ego back in check, and my confidence in myself lower than it is in JT O’Sullivan, I’m back for redemption:

RAVENS (-7) over Raiders

I don’t like the Ravens, I’m not impressed, I don’t think they’re very good. And yet, I’m picking them and giving a TD. This is why you shouldn’t trust me.

PREDICTED SCORE: Ravens 20, Raiders 10
“MONEY” WAGERED: $100

Cards (+4) over PANTHERS

This matchup looks like a push to me on paper, in which case, Carolina should only get 1.5 points for the home-field advantage. Since they're getting 4, I'll take the Cards in pillownail-biter.

PREDICTION: Panthers 27, Cards 24
WAGER: $400

Bucs (+2.5) over COWBOYS

The Cowboys look bad and the Bucs look good, but I say the ‘Boys find a way to eek this out. But I still can’t give points with the way they’re playing right now.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 24, Bucs 23
WAGER: $300

Redskins (-8) over LIONS

The Skins have been playing up to the good teams, and down the bad ones. I say that stops this week.

PREDICTION: Skins 34, Lions 16
WAGER: $1,000

DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Bills

The Bills aren’t quite as good as they’ve looked, so they’re due to take one on the chin.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 20, Bills 17
WAGER: $100

Rams (+7.5) over PATRIOTS

The Rams are on a roll, and the Pats… Well, I have no idea what the Pats are. Don’t get me wrong -– they’ll win, I just have no idea how easily. “When it doubt, say 7 points”, that’s what I always say –- starting now.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $100

Chargers (-3.5) over Saints

Both these teams need to play a lot better. I think the Bolts are the better bet to do it –- especially with Reggie Bush out.

PREDICTION: Bolts 31, Saints 27
WAGER: $500

Chiefs (+13.5) over JETS

The Jets win this one easily against the LJ-less Chiefs, who are also starting the legendary Tyler Thigpen at QB.

PREDICTION: Jets 27, Chiefs 13
WAGER: $300

Falcons (+9) over EAGLES

It’s getting crowded on the Matt Ryan/Falcons bandwagon, glad a got a good seat early. The game’s in Philly, so I think they pull it out, but Atlanta keeps it close.

PREDICTION: Philly 27, Falcons 20
WAGER: $200

JAGUARS (-7) over Browns

I think the Jags are poised to make a run. A game against Cleveland seems like a good place to start.

PREDICTION: Jags 27, Browns 17
WAGER: $300

TEXANS (-9) over Bengals

Same as above, except replace “Jags” with “Texans”, and “Browns” with “Bengals”.

PREDICTION: Texans 31, Bengals 20
WAGER: $500

Giants (+3) over STEELERS

BREAKING NEWS: Santonio Holmes is a pothead. He just got busted with weed in his car, and won’t play this weekend. I probably would’ve picked the Giants anyway, this makes it a no-brainer.

PREDICTION: Giants 24, Steelers 20
WAGER: $300

NINERS (-5) over Seahawks

New Math: Singletary – Nolan + a crappy opponent = A rare Niner win.

PREDICTION: Niners 27, ‘Hawks 20
WAGER: $1,000

Colts (+3.5) over TITANS

Going into the season: Titans underrated, Colts overrated. Now: not so much. The Titans are great, but they can’t win them all. Is this the week they lose? I say “no”, but I’m worried.

PREDICTION: Titans 23, Colts 20
WAGER: $100

To see which announcers will be calling your team’s game, or to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country check out this site.

Theoretical Gambling: Week 7

It's Friday, and you know what that means -- time for imaginary gambling! Another winning week, another pile of fake money acquired by yours truly (now up $1,100 after two weeks). Another couple of weeks like this, and I may actually have to go to Vegas with some real money. I know, that sounds like famous last words, but as "Fast Eddie" Felson said, "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." In the spirit of that fictional quote from a fictional man in a fictional story, let's get to some fiction wagering:

First, a quick refresher on the rules: The entire "pot" (which started at $5,000 in Week 5) must be wagered, with every game having at least $100, and no more than $1,000, wagered on it.

Week 6 record: 9-4
Season Record: 17-10
Week 6 vs. Spread: 7-6
Season vs. Spread: 14-13
Week 6 Money won/lost: +$300
Season total (gain/loss): $6,100 (+$1,100)

Tennessee (-8) over KANSAS CITY

Tennessee is my pick for “The best team you feel least comfortable about giving away double-digit points with”. You know they’ll win, but will they score enough to cover? With Larry Johnson suspended for this game, Tennessee could easily win by 10 without scoring 20, but that’s a hard thing to bet on happening. Not that I’m going to let that stop me.

PREDICTED SCORE: Titans 17, Chiefs 7
“MONEY” WAGERED: $400

San Diego (-1) over BUFFALO

In a 1 point spread game, you should just pick the team who you think will win. Therefore, I’m picking this one like I used to when I was a kid. San Diego are 3-3, and Buffalo is 4-1, so which records seem more likely after this game: San Diego 3-4 and Buffalo 5-1, or San Diego 4-3 and Buffalo 4-2. I’m going with the latter.

PREDICTION: Bolts 24, Bills 21
WAGER: $700

Pittsburgh (-10) over CINCINNATI

I thought those NFL ads last year featuring Steven Jackson and Shawne Merriman were the best of all time. But the new one this year following Troy Palomalu and LaDainian Tomlinson from birth -- through childhood and college -- to a thundering collision on the field against each other, is even better. That has noting to do with this game, but it’s more interesting than saying “Cincy sucks”.

PREDICTION: Steelers 30, Bengals 17
WAGER: $500

MIAMI (-2.5) over Baltimore

I can’t believe I’m picking the Dolphins and giving points. If you would’ve told me that would happen against any team besides KC or possibly St. Louis, and I’d have laughed, and probably thought you were crazy. Now I’d probably think you’re a witch, and try to burn you.

PREDICTION: ‘Phins 24, Ravens 17
WAGER: $300

Dallas (-7) over ST. LOUIS

Tony Romo probably won’t play. It probably won’t matter.

PREDICTION: ‘Boys 24, Rams 17
WAGER: $400

Minnesota (+3.5) over CHICAGO

Minnesota needs play much better than they did against the Lions last week. I think they will. This game will be a toss-up, so take the points.

PREDICTION: Vikes 17, Bears 16
WAGER: $300

New Orleans (+3) over CAROLINA

Close call, but the Saints need this one worse than Carolina, so I’ll take the points.

PREDICTION: Saints 31, Panthers 27
WAGER: $400

NY GIANTS (-11) over San Francisco

I thought the Niners might be able to sneak up on the red-hot, undefeated Super Bowl champs…until the Giants already pulled their sleep-walk loss the previous week vs. Cleveland. They won’t overlook two games in a row.

PREDICTION: Giants 31, Niners 17
WAGER: $800

HOUSTON (-9.5) over Detroit

I’ll never feel right about taking the Texans by 10 points, but Detroit was bad before losing Roy Williams and Jon Kitna. Hopefully, Houston rid themselves of their bad early-season mojo in their last-second win last week.

PREDICTION: Houston 34, Lions 13
WAGER: $600

NY Jets (-3) over OAKLAND

This spread seems a little small to me. It’s times like these, I wish I still had a bookie.

PREDICTION: Jets 27, Raiders 17
WAGER: $700

WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Cleveland

Washington looked great up until last week, Cleveland looked terrible until last week. Let’s just pretend last week didn’t happen, shall we?

PREDICTION: Skins 27, Browns 17
WAGER: $700

GREEN BAY (+1.5) over Indy

Are the Colts back, or are the ravens just that bad? Probably a combination of both. But on the road, without Addai, giving points -- I’ll hold off another week or two before I start believing again.

PREDICTION: Packers 27, Colts 24
WAGER: $100

Seattle (+11) over TAMPA BAY

Seneca Wallace and Charlie Frye. Those are your Seahawk QB’s. That really makes me want to give those 11 points. Then I remember that Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese are the Buc QB’s. The Bucs win this one, but not by 11.

PREDICTION: Bucs 24, ‘Hawks 16
WAGER: $200

Denver (+3) over NEW ENGLAND

I don’t like what I see in the Pats, so I’m not willing to give points to a good team against them (bad Denver defense notwithstanding). But I do think at home on a Monday night, the pats can probably pull out a nail-biter.

PREDICTION: Pats 24, Broncos 23
WAGER: $200

Want to see which announcers will be calling your team’s game? Want to get an early look at what game will be airing in your area of the country? (If so, what the hell are you doing not having DirecTV?) If you answered "yes" to either of those questions, then just check out this link

Theoretical Gambling: Week 6

It’s Friday night, and everyone knows what that means -- it's time for another weekend of fake gambling! And, after a winning record last week, I have even more make-believe money with which to wager. That's right, had I been in Vegas last weekend, I would've left with more money than I came with -- not including hotel, buffet, and hooker expenses. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Week 5 record: 8-6
Week 5 vs. The Spread: 7-7
Money won/lost: +$800
Season total (gain/loss): $5,800 (+$800)

Time for this week’s picks, Daddy needs a new pair of imaginary shoes...

SAINTS (-7) over Raiders

The Saints have lost some real heartbreakers this year. I say this week they take out their frustration on the sideshow that is the Raiders and whoever’s acting as their figurehead coach this week.

PREDICTED SCORE: Saints 34, Raiders 16
“MONEY” WAGERED: $500

Ravens (+4.5) over COLTS

The Colts are really lucky to be 2-2. I think they make it to 3-2, but not easily.

PREDICTION: Indy 24, Ravens 20
WAGER: $200

JETS (+5.5) over Bengals

No Carson Palmer, no points.

PREDICTION: Jets 30, Bengals 10
WAGER: $800

Panthers (+1.5) over BUCS 


The Panthers are “win ugly” pick this year – you’re rarely impressed, but they usually score more points than the other team. And most teams that do that win.

PREDICTION: Panthers 20, Bucs 16
WAGER: $600

FALCONS (+2.5) over Bears 


I really like the Falcons, and this week they are at home and getting points. So why do I feel so worried about this pick? Because at some point, Atlanta is bound to put up one of those “They’re still the Falcons”-type games.

PREDICTION: Falcons 17, Bears 16
WAGER: $100

Lions (+13) over VIKINGS

Adrian Petersen, a 300 yard game? It could happen. Still, I think Detroit keeps it relatively close.

PREDICTION: Vikes 30, Lions 20
WAGER: $100

TEXANS (-3) over Dolphins 


The actual Cinderella team in the AFC so far against the pre-season pick for the Cinderella team in the AFC. After last week’s debacle, the winless Texans really need a ‘W’. If only just to head off those “Houston, we have a problem” jokes at the pass.

PREDICTION: Texans 27, Dolphins 20
WAGER: $200

Jaguars (+3) over BRONCOS 


Two teams I really don’t know what to think of, but I have to pick one. So, when in doubt, go with the underdog and take the points. Especially when they’re going against a sieve of a defense.

PREDICTION: Jags 31, Broncos 28
WAGER: $200

REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams 


The Redskins look for real. If they are, they will cover this spread easily.

PREDICTION: Skins 34, Rams 13
WAGER: $700

Eagles (-4.5) over NINERS 


No Westbrook, no problem. No way the Eagles lose three in a row. The Niners, on the other hand, lose three in a row better than any team in the league.

PREDICTION: Eagles 31, Niners 20
WAGER: $1,000

Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS

The Cowboys are due to play well. Kurt Warner is due to throw like 60 times for 500 yards and 4 INTs.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 38, Cards 28
WAGER: $500

Packers (-2) over SEAHAWKS 


Are the Packers and Seahawks this bad? I’d like to think so. I just wish both teams could lose this game.
PREDICTION: Pack 27, Seahawks 24
WAGER: $300

Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS 


This should’ve been a great matchup – the rematch of last year’s AFC championship, and quite possibly a preview of this year’s. Instead, it’s a test of which AFC power has fallen further since last year.

PREDICTION: Chargers 24, Pats 21
WAGER: $600

BROWNS (+8) over Giants 


The Giants are due for a stinker, the Browns need something, anything, to keep from letting this season become a complete embarrassment.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Browns 20
WAGER: $200

My Wife's Survivor Pick: Washington
My Wife's Record So Far: 5-0

Theoretical Gambling: Week 5

Let's take look at the matchups awaiting us in Week 5 of the 2008 NFL season, shall we? To make things a little more interesting, I'm going to gift myself 5,000 theoretical dollars with which to gamble on said NFL games to how quickly I can lose it all. The only rules for the bets are these: 1) I have to bet all the money every week, and 2) Minimum bet: $100, Maximum bet: $1,000.

HOUSTON (+3) over Indianapolis

A "due" game. As in Houston is due, simple as that. And I think Indy is in trouble. Big trouble.

Predicted score: HOUSTON 23, INDY 20
"Money" wagered: $100

Tennessee (-2½) over BALTIMORE

I can't believe thousands of people are going to pay to see this game when they could be home watching a good game.

Prediction: TENNESSEE 20, BALTY 17
Wager: $200

San Diego (-6½) over MIAMI

San Diego is the toughest team to pick in the league -- they seem capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, anytime, anywhere. But I think they've overcome the rough start, and are ready to pile up a few W's. Meanwhile, for the time being I'm just going to pretend that Dolphins/Pats game never happened.

Prediction: BOLTS 31, PHINS 17
Wager: $500

Kansas City (+10) over CAROLINA

Carolina should win easily, but I'm not sold on their offense, so I'm gambling the Chiefs can keep it close -- or possibly stick in a meaningless TD late -- and cover.

Prediction: PANTHERS 24, CHIEFS 16
Wager: $300

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Washington

This game should come down to Brian Westbrook -- if he's healthy, the Eagles win, if he's not out, the Redskins have the edge. Westbrook has a strong history of playing hurt, and maintaining his effectiveness so I say he plays, and plays well. Washington is either a lot better than I thought or not. I'm still going with "not".

Prediction: PHILLY 30, SKINS 20
Wager: $200

Chicago (-3½) over DETROIT

Detroit is bad. Like really, really bad.

Prediction: BEARS 31, LIONS 20
Wager: $1,000

Atlanta (+7) over GREEN BAY

The Falcons = Better than everybody thinks. The Packers = Worse than everybody thinks. The Pack still wins it if Rodgers plays the whole game, but the Falcons ride Michael Turner to keep it close.

Prediction: PACKERS 24, FALCONS 20
Wager: $300

N.Y. GIANTS (-7½) over Seattle

I think the loss of Burress could hurt the Giants a lot more than people think, but the Seahawks look pretty bad. This is a toughie. I think the Giants will win by about a TD, so it's really a coin flip. That's it, I'll flip a coin. Hold on while I find one... Okay, got one. Flipping it... Heads. Wait, which team was heads again? Oh, I never figured that part out. Alright, let's say Seattle is heads -- since they have the head of a seahawk on their helmets. Okay, flip #2... It's tails -- Giants. Can't argue with that kind of science.

Prediction: GIANTS 27, SEAHAWKS 20
Wager: $100

Tampa Bay (+3½) over DENVER

I like really like Tampa's D. I really don't like Denver's D. Also, Brian Griese put up big numbers in a Bucs victory at Chicago the last time Griese played a former team, so maybe he'll psych himself up to make this stop #2 on the Vendetta '08 Tour. This is the type of BS reasoning you have to come up with to rationalize picks in close games in the NFL.

Prediction: BUCS 27, BRONCOS 24
Wager: $200

New England (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO

I like the Mike Martz Niner offense. Sure, there are sacks and hurries, as well as fumbles and interceptions. But there are also first downs, even touchdowns (unlike the models run by Jim Hostler, Mike McCarthy, even Norv Turner). I've grown to like J.T. O'Sullivan's big play ability. I've even stopped saying that "JTO" stands for "Just Turn Overs". But that being said, there is just no way in hell the Niners beat the Pats this week. Not after New England lost its last game. Not after the embarrassment the Pats suffered at the hands of the lowly Dolphins in Foxborough. And certainly not after Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game.

Prediction: PATS 27, NINERS 17
Wager: $1,000

Buffalo (+1) over ARIZONA

Buffalo is easy to like -- young, improving, and clutch. I know their fast start has been aided by some luck, and I know it will come crashing down some week soon. Probably on the road. I'm just betting it's not this week. Arizona is in disarray, and while I think they'll give the Bills a close game, I'm betting on another late field goal to win for this year's darkhorse darlings of the NFL.

Prediction: BILLS 24, CARDS 23
Wager: $200

DALLAS (-17½) over Cincinnati

Cincy has about as much chance to win this game as Bengals starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has of stealing Jessica Simpson away from Tony Romo -- about 20%. Remember, Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, so he could probably trick her pretty easily. More easily than the average person, I mean.

Prediction: 'BOYS 37, BENGALS 17
Wager: $500

JACKSONVILLE (-3½) over Pittsburgh

You know how some bands lose most of their original members but insist on still calling themselves by the same name? Once I saw The Band in NYC at some club, and there wasn't anybody I knew on stage. No Levon Helm. No Robby Robertson. Just some old fat dude from The Band, and a bunch of supporting players. The Steelers offense might be one more hit on the achy-breaky Ben Roethlisberger from looking like that version of The Band -- Charlie Batch at QB, Mewelde Moore at RB. And with the way their O-line looks, that hit might come sooner rather than later.

Prediction: JAGS 27, STEELERS 20
Wager: $300

Minnesota (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

This is another pure, straight-from-the-ass, "due" game. The Vikes are just due to win one, simple as that. And Adrian Peterson is due for an extra large game. The Saints D might be just the guys to give it up. Still, I'd feel better about this pick if both teams agreed not to play a QB. Or at least if Minnesota's wasn't named "Gus".

Prediction: VIKES 30, SAINTS 28
Wager: $100

My Wife's Survivor Pick: Carolina*
My Wife's Record So Far: 4-0

*My pick: Irrelevant (Why? Because I managed to get eliminated in just 4 weeks -- in a triple-elimination league. Yes, I'm aware that I suck, and that my wife is better at picking football games than I am. Nothing to see here, please move along.)