The Silver Oscars

The great Nate Silver, of Five-Thirty-Eight.com and Baseball Prospectus fame, has come out with his Oscar predictions. If you saw his uncannily accurate predictions of the Presidential election -- he was one of the first to champion Obama's candidacy, correctly predicted a blowout early on, and got 49 of 50 states correctly -- or have paid attention to the rave reviews for PECOTA, the baseball statistical projection system he invented, you'll know he's a man worth listen to when it comes to predictions. I don't know if I've ever had a man-crush on a nerd before, but what I feel for Nate Silver is wrong, I don't want to be right.

So far, Nate agrees with me on all four my predictions -- 'Slumdog' (at an astonishing 99%), Danny Boyle (99.7%!!!), Heath Ledger (only 85.8%), and Mickey Rourke (77.1%). Soon, I'll be finishing off my own predictions, and we'll see how close the rest of our picks are. I guarantee there's already one pick we disagree on. (Can you guess it?) Also, Nate didn't do the screenplay awards, which I of course will do. Maybe next.

Skipping Around

After Best Picture and Best Actor, the next logical category is Best Actress, but I've only seen two of the movies/performances and hold out hope of seeing one or two of them before the Oscars (I've even gone so far as to rent the DVD of one -- 'Frozen River'). So, in the meantime, let's go to a category I can write about intelligently (at least in theory):

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher for 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'
Danny Boyle for 'Slumdog Millionaire'
Ron Howard for 'Frost/Nixon'
Gus Van Sant for 'Milk'
Stephen Daldry for 'The Reader'

THE NOMS: Looks good except for 'The Reader' (again), which as I said before, I have not seen, yet manage to dislike anyway. I would've liked to see Martin McDonagh for 'In Bruges', Darren Aronofsky for 'The Wrestler', or Charlie Kaufman for 'Synecdoche, New York'.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Van Sant did a great job, in the most straight-forward cinematic approach he's ever taken, but it comes down to Boyle and Fincher. Boyle was inspired and unique, while Fincher displayed his usual technical mastery. It's a close call, but I give the nod to Fincher, who gives us his warmer, most introspective work to date, while wowing with the visuals.

WHO WILL WIN: Fincher may have told a warmer, more inviting story than he has before, but Boyle made something no one can compare to anything else. While Fincher stands an outside chance, Boyle will be riding a wave of hype along with his film, which could sweep the non-acting awards as a tribute to the film's achievement (voters knowing they can award their favorite performances from the other multi-nominees like 'Button', 'Milk', Frost/Nixon', etc.)